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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15933)	1/26/2003 2:47:59 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

reuters.com

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15933)	1/26/2003 3:18:20 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

From Friday: 15:21 ET OTEX New High Profile -- Open Text (28.10 +2.07) Stock breaks out to a fresh 52-wk high, clearing a level established Dec. 2. Move comes on volume of 1.07 mln shares, or 4.2x avg turnover. OTEXF develops software used to collaborate on business projects, search corporate intranets, and managem workflow. Last night, co reported a 33% increase in EPS to $0.32 and a 14% improvement in revs. For 2003, co provided guidance of $1.25 (p/e 22.5). Stock currently trades at a premium to its 16% yr/yr projected EPS rate. Appears that shorts have also taken notice of this fact. Based on the latest data, roughly 43% of co's float has been sold short. Today, it appears that some of those short the stock are being forced to cover their positions.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15933)	1/27/2003 12:19:01 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 57684

For now, the outlook for gold is golden By Steven Syre Boston Globe Columnist 1/26/2003 War worries generated a lot of ugly financial numbers last week. The stock market sunk and the dollar piled up an unprecedented nine-day losing streak against the Euro. Then there was gold, the shining investment story of 2002 that continued to advance and reach a six-year high last week. Gold for February delivery climbed to $368.40 by Friday, the highest closing price on the spot market since the end of 1996. Gold thrives on anxiety and economic uncertainty. The threat of war, especially a conflict that lacks support from American allies, qualifies in spades. Gold prices, up about 25 percent last year, have gained another 5 percent this year. So here's a fair question: What would happen to gold if we all woke up tomorrow to discover Saddam Hussein living in exile somewhere other than Iraq? Crisis over. The short answer is easy, gold prices would take a big hit. An answer covering a longer period of time - the balance of the year or over the next few years - is more interesting. I asked several professional investors who are also gold fans to estimate the temporary effect of war jitters on current prices and got mostly consistent answers. ''The war premium is maybe $15 to $20,'' says Boston hedge fund manager Paul Stuka of Osiris Investment Partners. ''At some point, will that come out? Absolutely.'' The biggest number I heard was $30 per ounce. No matter, it's clear gold prices will take a significant fall whenever Iraq ceases to be the worry it is today. But gold fans believe in a secular, longer-term bull market for the metal that did nothing but disappoint its owners over 20 years. The two keys: currencies under pressure, and basic supply and demand. Reflation, an economic buzzword for the new year, is the development that would boost gold prices. Gold bulls believe central banks in the United States and elsewhere, worried over the threat of deflation to their currencies, will ''reflate'' by printing more money. That would lead investors to move more of their money into hard assets. Stuka notes the current gold rally that began in November wasn't triggered by any war-related developments. He points to a speech delivered at the time by Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke, laying out steps the Fed could take in the unlikely event Japan-style deflation did occur. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan brought up the subject of deflation in unusually blunt public comments the next month. ''These moves have been telegraphed,'' says hedge fund manager Walter Cabot, who launched Apogee Gold Fund last fall. That chain of events will gradually create increased demand for gold, he suggests. But can supply grow at the same pace? Big gold-mining companies may have a hard time keeping up because new exploration has been curtailed for years due to depressed metal prices. There wasn't enough incentive to look hard for more gold sources. Most individual investors who put money into gold actually buy shares of those companies, which have performed more erratically than the metal they mine. The leading gold and silver index, composed of leading mining companies, soared 43 percent last year and has gained another 7 percent so far in 2003. But the same index had been up more than 60 percent during the middle of last year and plunged to near-break even within a period of just two months. One more warning about that index: It now trades at about 119 times earnings. The gold-producing companies have an impact in metal markets beyond the millions of ounces they provide. In the past, those companies have hedged their bets by selling huge amounts of borrowed gold. The hedging, which has helped derail past rallies, appears to be in decline. Lots of things could derail the bullish gold outlook. Economies could recover and begin to grow out of debt problems. A more stable global political environment would help. Increasing corporate profits would redirect more money back into the stocks and other financial assets. All those prospects would be pleasant, but it's hard to put much faith in them right now. __________________________________________ Steven Syre is a Boston Globe columnist. He can be reached at syre@globe.com. boston.com