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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (26278)	1/26/2003 2:43:25 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

aj, do you see any similarities to early Aug 01, after the bounce? I do, but you may not. Its just some off beat stuff that I watch, and the similarites are disturbing, even for a bear I would think. 9/11 was 4 weeks later. Thanks.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (26278)	1/26/2003 3:10:52 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

If I have targeted those two periods right, in both cases the nasdaq popped for 1-2 days, and then sold off steadily for 5-9 days, the low occuring on the 2nd Tuesday or Wednesday of the next month, and the low was an additional 7-9% below this point. There was then an explosive run for about a week, of at least 10% on the nasdaq. The same pattern would probably drop the nasdaq to under the 1260 target, after a pop to 1380 or more. The low would be Feb 11 or 12. We would then rally again to above the current levels by about 7%. I don't think this pattern will hold very closely. I can see a pop and then drop, but I don't see the drop taking that long. Then we would have to rally a couple weeks prior to going to war. Tough call.