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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (68934)	1/26/2003 2:56:33 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

The Kristol and Kagan piece is interesting but, again, as I've typed to others, I think the argument that says the problem is the bad ol' French misses the point. The point, at least as of this afternoon, Sunday, is that Bush has not only failed to convince much of the US but huge swaths of generally sympathetic public opinion outside the US. If he makes that case convincingly, over the next month or so, what the French and Germans do, think, and say, will definitely be less relevant. However, so long as he does not, they are very relevant. Not a few posts on this thread have argued that one of the basic lessons from Vietnam is that an administration should not take the country to war if it fails to convince a large portion of the population that all other options have failed and the country is under some imminent threat. The Bush folk have still not done that.

To: greenspirit who wrote (68934)	1/26/2003 3:37:29 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 281500

Thanks for posting that incisive article, Michael. The only thing missing was mention of the fact that the French have substantial economic interests to foster in Iraq. It is no secret that TotalFinaElf has its eyes on the larger oil fields in Southern Iraq. therecord.com Sad that the French, though recognizing that Saddam has WMDs, are willing to turn their backs on the dangers the weapons create. I suppose the French thinking is that if TotalFinaElf gets a deal for the Southern Iraq oil fields, there is no reason to fear disruption of their supplies should an armed-with-nukes Saddam make another grab on Kuwait or even Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, Islamofascist fervor and terrorism might be deflected from France as a result of the refusal to support the US. The French policy I suppose serves a narrow view of the French national interest but it fatally misreads Bush's intentions. It seems to be based on an assumption that the US will fail in Iraq. All objective signs suggest that we won't fail militarily, so the French assumption must be questioned. Perhaps their thinking is not as I see it because the Iraq endgame certainly seems pre-destined. If they think that TotalFinaElf will get first dibs at the huge Southern Iraqi oil fields it covets after we successfully conclude the Iraq campaign without their support and, indeed, in the face of their active opposition, they are sadly mistaken. The French seem to be pursuing an incomprehensible strategy.