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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kumar who wrote (69053)	1/27/2003 2:17:06 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 281500

This points out that things haven't changed a wit with the Palestinian attitude. Arafat still thinks he can wait us out. washingtonpost.com Axis Of Inaction By Jackson Diehl Monday, January 27, 2003; Page A19 As Prime Minister Ariel Sharon cruises toward an easy reelection in Israel tomorrow, European and Arab governments look on aghast: This is a disaster, they intimate, for which the Bush administration is largely responsible. Thanks to the American president's coddling, Israel's leading hawk will now entrench himself for another term, primed to expand Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories and thwart any move toward a peace settlement. Some fear he might even take advantage of a war with Iraq to kill or expel Yasser Arafat and other Palestinian leaders. This is all true, to a point. Despite delivering campaign bouquets to the majority of Israelis who favor a peace deal, Sharon has no intention of going along with a U.S. plan to create a Palestinian state by 2005 -- much less a freeze on settlements penciled in for this year. And the history of the past two years suggests President Bush is unlikely to press the old general on it, notwithstanding the White House's frequent rhetorical tributes to the two-state "vision." Yet Arabs and Europeans who see the Middle East peace process as stalled by a Bush-Sharon axis of intransigence are wrong. The real problem in the Israeli-Arab conflict the past six months has not been Bush's failure to break Sharon but the near-collapse of a once-aggressive Arab and European initiative to reform and renew the Palestinian leadership. Sharon will be reelected not because of American support, or for lack of an alternative, but because the pro-peace majority in Israel perceives no credible Palestinian partner with whom a deal can be struck. That is what the Europeans and Arabs promised to change after Bush's speech on a two-state solution seven months ago. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer promised to insist on a reform of Palestinian government; senior Saudi and Jordanian ministers shuttled in and out of Washington, proclaiming that Palestinian suicide bombings would soon be reined in. "Finally," said the Jordanian foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, "Arab states are coming to the conclusion that this cannot go on. This is serious, and this is a change of behavior." The Arabs didn't quite promise to get rid of Arafat, as Bush demanded, but they talked of a political reform that would elevate him to a symbolic position while handing real authority to moderates prepared to renounce violence and negotiate seriously with Israel. Meanwhile, the Egyptians were to "train" Palestinian security organs, which meant ridding them of extremists, while the Europeans were to focus on building an accountable financial system. Moderate Palestinians quietly welcomed these initiatives; they hoped foreign leverage would allow them finally to overcome Arafat and his clique. If all this had been done, Sharon would probably be trailing in the polls behind Amram Mitzna, a new and relatively attractive Labor Party leader whose platform calls for another try at negotiations with the Palestinians. In fact, relatively little has been achieved. A new Palestinian finance minister has succeeded in carrying out some reforms, and drafts of a Palestinian constitution, duly calling for the creation of a new post of prime minister, are floating around. Yet Arafat is still very much in charge -- the constitution calls for him to appoint the new prime minister -- and, most vitally, efforts to stop violence or to reform the security forces have gone nowhere. Egypt finally convened a conference of Palestinian factions last Friday and urged the adoption of a relatively weak accord swearing off terrorist attacks inside Israel. But even the militant splinter of Arafat's own Fatah movement, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, refused to accept it, as did Islamic groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Pathetically, the Egyptians and moderates among the Palestinians fancied that the proposed cease-fire statement would somehow sway Israeli voters toward Mitzna. Their strategy, at least, is the right one: In the end only a political groundswell in Israel, supplemented by American pressure, will dislodge Sharon. That the opposite is happening -- Mitzna has been plunging in the polls and Sharon rising -- only shows that Israeli voters know the difference between real Palestinian reform and meaningless conferences. Once the elections are over, the Arabs and Europeans will no doubt renew their demands that Bush bring Sharon into line; the Palestinians will wait for them to succeed. Yet if there is to be a Middle East peace process this year, it will not begin in Washington, or with Bush and Sharon. It will have to start in Cairo, in Riyadh, in Brussels and in Ramallah -- points on an axis of inaction that has kept Ariel Sharon in power

To: kumar who wrote (69053)	1/27/2003 2:40:37 AM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

reuters.com UK Says Iraq Hiding Weapons as Blix Report Looms Sun January 26, 2003 08:49 PM ET By Peter Graff LONDON (Reuters) - Britain said on Monday Iraq was hiding banned weapons, spying on UN arms inspectors and hindering their movements, hours before a key inspectors' report to the Security Council. British officials briefed journalists on intelligence they said proved their case, though they gave no indication as to the source of their information. They made clear Britain is prepared to make the case that Iraq is in breach of Security Council resolutions calling on it to disarm, even if inspectors produce no "smoking gun" of clear evidence. They said they had shared intelligence with the inspectors which showed Iraq was hiding chemical warfare munitions, missile engines and secret documents about weapons programs. In one case, missile parts were squirreled out of a production site in November before inspectors arrived. Britain has also told the inspectors that Iraq was spying on them, bugging hotel rooms and even staging fake car accidents and other diversions to keep them from reaching certain sites, the officials said. The briefings were timed to coincide with Monday's reports by chief weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohammed ElBaradei, and give a foretaste of the arguments Britain and the United States will make in the coming days. Blix, whose remit covers missiles, chemical and biological weapons, is expected to say Iraq has not been fully cooperative with inspections. ElBaradei, who covers nuclear weapons, will say his inspections need more time to be conclusive. In the absence of a "smoking gun," London and Washington may face a difficult task in persuading skeptical Council members and their own increasingly wary publics that war is justified. The British officials said their intelligence also showed Iraqi scientists had been threatened with harm, including the kidnapping of family members, if they cooperated with inspectors or showed them documents. No Iraqi scientist has agreed to be interviewed while alone with the inspectors. The officials said the Iraqi leadership had already begun looking for "an escape route" and funneling assets abroad. Iraq denies it has an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, or that its leaders would seek asylum abroad