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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (27962)	1/27/2003 1:49:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, <<PS: 10Q = $368 vs Gold at $372 CDMA losing ground vs the Aztec mania>> ... early days still, with some time to go yet, because most folks cannot put two bits of pure gold together enough for a set of small earings. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=17510605 May 25th, 2002 ... Here is my script for gold: Gold, while a contra-asset, behaves as all assets do, becomes more attractive and desired as its price rises. It is therefore hard to determine its true worth. (a) Gold becomes generally acceptable, patriotic, and polite company topic (b) Funds buy some (c) Individuals buy some (d) Some derivative or exogenous event trigger more buys (e) Someone notices a shortage (f) Interventions fail (g) More and bigger M&A deals by high PE un-hedged mining companies with low PE hedged mining enterprises (h) Gold mine IPOs (i) VC funded explorations (j) University enrollment in mineral geology rises sharply (k) J6P seriously participates, followed by second wave of H4P, S2B, W3C in echo frenzy (l) Gold stocks splits repeatedly (m) Structured products for retail investors (n) Copycat frenzy in other resource shares (hint: palladium, platinum, and rhodium will be on the list) (o) Jewelry brought out by owners for recycling (p) Central bankers start buying (q) Congressional investigation of FED/Treasury gold accounting (r) Swiss cantons vote for accumulation (s) GE and AIG hits CNBC talking about how much imputed gains they managed on explorations below the Thames River (t) London riverside apartments rise in price (u) Boston municipality authorizes exploration of Charles River to balance budget (v) Bre-x II, the sequel (w) Discovery of a new object of frenzy replacing gold, first talked about on CFZ, then picked up by BBR thread Notice we did not have to invoke Chinese-math (if everyone buys a toothbrush ...) to back the bull as yet. I will however quote from the Indian-Japanese math done by Marc Faber via dailyreckoning.com Quote Japanese buying of gold is tiny," writes Marc Faber, "when compared to the country's GDP per capita. Japan currently imports only about 100 tons of gold annually for a population of 120 million with a GDP per capita of more than US$35,000. Compare this to India, which imports close to 900 tons of gold for a population of one billion but with a GDP per capita of only around US$300! "Compared to India's purchases with a far lower purchasing power, Japan's gold buying has so far been very small, but it could rise significantly in the future and become a price-driving factor in the gold market." Unquote So you see, we lemmings have such a long way to run yet:0) Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (27962)	1/27/2003 9:29:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, Following up on the topic of Yen loan, used by me for purchase of some HK-based PRC shares, other US-based Canadian equity, some other SAfrica-based gold shares, and even Japanese shares. THe reason I felt comfortable with the Yen loan is because I can count on the full force and completely predictable fury of the Japanese government and people to furiously attack their currency whenever I see news such as this ... Message 18499120 Chugs, Jay