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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (27992)	1/27/2003 10:41:37 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<If you pay close attention, you can understand the present very well. You have to read a lot, though.> Off off topic... sorry couldn't help it... you were doing great till the part about reading :) : "As we begin to be mindful, living in the "now" and directing our attention to the smallest fraction of the present instant, something extraordinary takes place. We begin to relinquish our fascination with both the past and future. We stop living in fantasies, fears, and anticipation of the future, and we learn to let go of time-consuming preoccupations with what was or what might have been. Some of us have spent enrie lifetimes fixated on our attachment to either what was or what will be... but present moment awareness, THAT is wisdom." - Lama Surya Das DAK

To: Ilaine who wrote (27992)	1/27/2003 10:51:30 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

Seems like I got the wrong end of this conversation about Friedman proving something. Seems like you are more on the right track than I thought. Sorry. Well you can try to develop a mathematical/econometric model of the whole thing. But first you do have to develop a good theory and understanding of what might be important as you have been doing. Rigorously testing these ideas against the data might come up with some surprises that might change your thinking. Historically I don't think it was such an unusual event. It was exacerbated clearly by the circumstances at the time - the boom was mainly in the US - the UK for example had high unemployment throughout the 1920s and trade had declined since the 19th century - so when the bust came in the US the rest of the World economy was in a bad state already. Since then a lot of reforms have been instituted and as I said the economy is deeper so that a bust like that is unlikely in a developed economy now. A Japan-like malaise though is possible. But this kind of event was common in the 19th century. A stock market crash like 1987 is for similar reasons unlikely to recur. 31 August 1998 is likely a worst case scenario for a single day loss now. David