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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (8232)	1/27/2003 7:51:44 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95738

Closing Technical Market Comments Mon Jan 27th 2003 GEOPOLITICAL NEWS KEEPS LID ON OVERSOLD MARKET By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) thetechtrader.com We got on Monday more of the same of last week, and the oscillators are now becoming very oversold. The market started out with a minor gap down, then had a brief rally on rumors about Saddam stepping down which, of course, was untrue. Just coincidentally the market on the rally did run right up to resistance and backed off rather sharply. We got a morning sell-off that took the indices to new lows, a mid-day weak rally attempt that got to resistance, and then we backed off and retested the lows and rallied off of a double bottom late in the day right to resistance before backing off again at the close. We closed down 141 on the Dow, and under 8000 at 7989. The S&P 500 was down early 14 to 847, the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 17 to 1325, and the 100 was down a little less than 10 at 986. The technicals today were very, very poor, almost climactic in some cases. Advance-declines were 25 to 7 on New York and 23 to 10 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 1 1/4 billion down and 153 million up on New York, about 8 to 1, and on Nasdaq it was about 3 to 1 negative with a total of about 1.4 billion traded there. About 1.4 billion was traded on New York as well. My personal board showed a mixed picture, mostly to the downside. There were a few minor fractional gainers, such as Emulex, Juniper and Checkpoint, which managed to get into the plus column by a few cents. But on the downside, the market leaders had a tough day, with eBay down 1.59, Amgen 1.46, Microsoft 68 cents, and several other stocks down less than a point. As bad as it seemed, a lot of stocks on Nasdaq were just fractionally changed other than eBay and Amgen, as mentioned. No other stocks were down as much as a point on my personal board. Reviewing the patterns, the S&P 500 has now dropped about 90 points, or about 9 ½ percent in just the last eight sessions. We’ve come down very hard and fast without any substantial rally and we are getting oversold. The Nasdaq 100 got down to near the December 31 lows as well as the early November lows, so there is some support here. They did hold without breaking down, although we have lower lows and breakdowns in both the S&P 500 and Dow, and we’ve broken necklines and head-and-shoulders patterns on the intermediate charts on those indices without a confirmation from the Nasdaq, so far. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed today at -237 and the SPX Oscillator at -110, extremely oversold readings & among the four most oversold readings in the last 3 yrs, but the problem is that geopolitical news is putting so much pressure on the market that investors can’t find a reason to justify buying stocks yet. I will tell you they are certanly very ripe for a rally and any news at this point could trigger a big snap back rally. Good trading! Harry