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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3503)	1/27/2003 3:26:29 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 3536

Re: but the biggest moves need to happen against currencies that are fixed like the yuan. Do you happen to know what mechanism would be used to break the dollar:yuan fixed rate of exchange? Who would dare to unleash the market on this exchange?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3503)	1/27/2003 5:56:17 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 3536

but the biggest moves need to happen against currencies that are fixed like the yuan. The euro may have gone far enough in the short run, especially considering the poor state of its principle economies Yuan/USD Is it not the intent of the Chinese government to keep the YUAN low ? by fixing it to the dollar, (now that the downtrend of the USD is accelerating), it seems to me that the Chinese would not be motivated to de-link the USD or ? The Euro I agree with what you said. Which would lead me to think that the Bull market in gold is getting stronger and may accelerate at the same speed as the dollar loses value ________________________ Some predictions that do not sound too comforting... 321gold.com The USDollar now faces serious challenge, against a backdrop whereby Kurt Richebacher of the Austrian School of Economics has proclaimed that no middle ground exists between a strong dollar and a collapsing dollar. He contends that retreat from the commitment of an official strong dollar will set into motion forces that ultimately collapse the dollar from sheer massive momentum and insolvent fundamentals. Newly appointed Fed Governor Bernanke's clear speech on planned monetization of debt, thus subjecting the dollar to sacrifice, identifies a watershed in formal posture toward the dollar. Replacement of Dept Treasury Secretary O'Neill with Snow only confirms that watershed event. While the majority of experts seem to believe that a lower dollar will make strides toward solving our economic problems, the threat of a USDollar Decline Vicious Circle now stares us in the face. A lower dollar cannot be achieved without risking the treacherous effects of a declining dollar, unleashing powerful forces inherent to such dynamics of change acting upon extreme imbalances. The majority of leaders, experts, and pundits seem loudly clueless as to the risk of this vicious circle. It is the natural flipside to the virtuous cycle enjoyed in the past decade with a rising dollar.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3503)	1/28/2003 3:44:01 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 3536

Re: Personally, I think it's late in the game to be going long the euro. I have been pounding the table against the dollar for several years now and think it still has a way to go, but the biggest moves need to happen against currencies that are fixed like the yuan. The euro may have gone far enough in the short run, especially considering the poor state of its principle economies. I totally agree with you.... the current euro spike will be short-lived. Could it be that the weaker dollar stems from China putting the squeeze on the US, diplomatically speaking, that is??? I mean, it's a fact that China is the chief buyer of US bonds: every year, China lends the US billions of dollars... for US consumers to buy Chinese products. The crisis over Iraq and Korea might be enough for China to remind her American partner....