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To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 3:50:32 PM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Yiwu,
I am a 57 year old american who spent his grad school days learing about china. Read many issues of Peoples Daily at that time. If you dont mind telling me, what is your age and where in china did you live? I would have given my right arm to have the internet back then and speak to chinese people back then. Mike



To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 3:56:16 PM
From: Neocon  Respond to of 281500
 
THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD: IMPACT AND CONSEQUENCES

China’s Great Leap Forward campaign of 1958-1960 was an intense and frantic mobilization of an unprecedented magnitude to continue a struggle that was considered to be part of a permanent revolution. While retaining a socialist base, communism was to be invoked hand-in-hand with modernization, bringing relief to the long suffering of China’s peasants and ensuring a miraculously immediate millenarian land of plenty. Instead, the judgment of history paints a far different picture. An irreversible focusing of profound rifts in the Chinese Communist Party and a delirious fabrication of reality led to rapid disintegration of the Leap’s goals, and to what perhaps was the greatest famine in human history. Both the immediate impact and far-reaching consequences of the Great Leap Forward (GLF) influence the current trends and priorities of today’s China, and understanding the nature of these past events is crucial in ascertaining the nature of the present.

The Hundred Flowers campaign and the following rectification movement in 1956-1957 left the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) divided and hesitant, sincerely concerned with acute contradictions within itself and among the Chinese people (Domenach 119). At that time, talk of future industrialization and economic growth was timid at best, as stated by Liu Shaoqi’s political report at the Eighth National Congress of the CCP in September 1956:

On the basis of actual conditions of our country, the Central Committee has thus defined the Party’s general line in the period of transition: to bring about, step by step, socialist industrialization and to accomplish, step by step, the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts and capitalist industry and commerce over a fairly long period. (Liu 2)

No talk of “leaps” had emerged yet, and the industrial growth of about 18.7 percent during the First Five Year Plan period was accompanied by a slow crawl in agricultural production of only about 3.8 percent (Spence 574).

Chairman Mao’s extremely sensitive political antennae were very alert in 1957, as the completion of a basic socialist system both confirmed his confidence in his own leadership and opened the question of what direction China’s socialist politics would take (Womack 24). He felt China had reached the next stage in its continuous and permanent revolution, one that could actualize traditional Marxist theory in a uniquely Chinese way. If China lacked the economic prerequisites that Marx had defined for a communist society, Mao had begun to believe that those same economic conditions could be brought into existence in the very process of striving to realize ultimate communist goals (Meisner 210). Thus, he became more and more frustrated with what he saw as a lagging process toward communism that was being prolonged unnecessarily.

His feeling of urgency for China’s future was greatly intensified during a crucial visit to Moscow in November 1957. Conflict and competition between Mao and Khrushchev were becoming more and more apparent. Khrushchev had boasted that the Soviet Union would overtake the United States in the output of major products in fifteen years, and Mao reacted by committing China to a similar competition (MacFarquhar, Cheek, and Wu 14). Upon his return to China, he began paving the way for an immediate move from the moderate to the frenzied, focused on the setting of targets that were from the outset over-ambitious.

These targets must be seen not only as an attempt at modernization, but also as a fusion of rapid economic growth and its fuel, consisting of equally rapid processes of radical social and ideological change (Meisner 204). The impetus was to pave a Chinese road to an eventual state of absolute communism that was ahead of the Soviet Union, in effect, to launch a Chinese “sputnik” (MacFarquhar, Cheek, and Wu 15). Mao had persuaded himself by now that this was a response to the spontaneous wishes of the people, to enlighten China’s countryside withindustrialization (de Bary and Lufrano 468).

The new rhetoric that Mao embraced was manifested in the nature of emerging propaganda that was regretfully drowned in overemphasis and incoherence. Automatically, the scale of the ambitions was in stark contrast with the muddiness of the formulations (Domenach 167). The Anti-Rightist Campaign had by then already made people within and without the Party scared to report anything but good news, and the new plans for China grew more from ideology than from efficiency (MacFarquhar 332). A battle on many fronts began: to strengthen industry, revolutionize agriculture, and implement communes in the countryside; all factors involved perpetuating and sustaining each other.

By the summer and fall of 1958, crucial policy decisions in the establishment of the communes were frenetically improvised on the spot by local leaders (Meisner 230). Mao had provided the spark that rapidly became a bonfire, engulfing the whole country in half-baked, misguided efforts to reshape the land as their own lives were reshaped by the communes. In a typical village, people would enter waving red flags, beating drums and gongs, and burning firecrackers, proclaiming the arrival of a new way of life (Leung 200-201). In Hebei, for example, the Provincial Committee of the Party boldly announced: “The great achievements of the overall leap forward have educated the masses and educated the cadres. People now unrestrictedly place confidence in the correctness of the leadership of the Party and fully realize the superiority of the socialist system and the great prowess of the working people in the conquest of nature” (Shi 278).

However, reaction was mixed, and included a mad rush to slaughter draft animals so that they would not be confiscated by the new communes (MacFarquhar 328). In the spirit of “communization” (gongchan feng), many communes were actually set up in a threatening, predatory fashion beyond the original intent of the Party. Properties and even entire handicraft workshops were impounded by local Party members to be absorbed into the new communes, alienating people by the hasty and arbitrary seizure of private property (Zhang 64). Internal reports even indicate resistance of a violent nature, peasants reportedly beating up cadres and leaving the communes, taking both grain and animals with them (Becker 54).

Radical transformation of the countryside included filling in lakes to create more fields for farming, the manual construction of huge dams and roads, and intensified mining (Bardeen 64). In addition, under direct guidelines issued from Mao himself, new and bizarre agricultural techniques were insisted upon in an eightfold strategy: the popularization of new breeds and seeds, close planting, deep plowing, increased fertilization, the innovation of farm tools, improved field management, pest control, and increased irrigation (Becker 70).

Rural industry at this time was ushered in with a crazed steel-smelting campaign that, coupled with the vast array of constructions and earth-moving projects, totally diverted the peasant population (Clark 240). Able-bodied men and women worked around the clock fueling the inefficient furnaces that sprang up nationwide, consuming huge forest resources and every last scrap of metal or iron they could find (MacFarquhar 327). Meanwhile, much of the harvest was tragically wasted, left to rot out in the fields.

At the same time, highly trained engineers and scientists all over China whose advice could have saved tremendous losses in human effort and natural resources were labeled “bourgeois experts” and imprisoned or sentenced to manual labor (Becker 63). Thus, as the Party ecstatically created thousands of new colleges, universities, and research institutes, an emphasis of political loyalty rather than competence was placed on the education of China’s countryside (Zhou 61).

This loyalty entailed a firm belief in the millenarian proportion of the whole event and the easy abundance that will inevitably come from such toil. This happened in certain provinces more than others, as some regional leaders even went to the extreme of allowing people to eat as much as they could stand. In some communes, people were so relieved at the notion of free food that they consumed three months’ supply of grain in a mere two weeks (Yang 55).

State policy began to become a victim of its own guaranteed success as local leaders fiercely competed with one another using unrealistic goals and falsified accomplishments (Womack 29). Central leadership caught on to this trend and was gravely concerned not just at the lies but the means used in preserving them. Even Mao was alarmed at the abundance of claims being made: “We must get rid of the empty reports and foolish boasting, we must not compete for reputation, but serve reality. Some of the targets are high, and no measures have been taken to implement them; that is not good” (Schram 106).

Despite his alarm, however, the understanding among the Party members themselves that failure to respond to production imperatives could impact their own political future led to frenzied production of substandard, unusable products and outright lies about agricultural yields (MacFarquhar 248). Areas that had a greater density of party membership were more likely to stick to the letter of the central directives and were thus more moderate, while outlying areas, in their eagerness to demonstrate their loyalty to the Party, were more likely to overreact to central directives (Yang 245).

As a result of these self-perpetuating claims that rang hollow with fantasy, the Party itself began to lose legitimacy (Shi 273). At the same time, those who knew the truth of communal mess halls beginning to shut down, Party cadres refusing to work, and other serious deteriorations of the fledgling system would not speak up (Becker 80). Direct challenge to the bogus claims being made and direct pronouncements of the truth were nothing short of political suicide. Meanwhile, the truth slipped out of reach for the entire Party. In early 1959, the State Statistical Bureau was dismantled and replaced by “good news reporting stations” (Clark 239).

In the summer of 1959, well after the GLF had entered its crisis phase, Mao appeared critically under-informed in his dismissal of the possibility of disaster (Mosher 270). It was at a Party meeting in Lushan that Mao was first confronted with the festering and rapidly deteriorating problems of the communes and the utter disasters stemming from GLF policies (de Bary and Lufrano 470). Peng Dehuai, then the defense minister, delivered a letter to Mao that politely but unmistakably laid the blame where it ultimately belonged: with the Chairman (MacFarquhar 216).

Peng had broken a cardinal rule in Chinese factional politics in revealing not only which “faction” he belonged to, but in taking the wrong side at a potential situation of struggle (Shi 283). This resulted in a savage attack launched by Mao that was compellingly mixed with hints of apology and self-criticism: “The chaos caused was on a grand scale and I take responsibility” (Schram 146).

By that time, however, far away from the Party elite, the very structure of society was falling apart. Starvation was already progressing through the provinces as grain was being forcibly taken from the communes to, ironically enough, meet a raised quota of exports to the Soviet Union (Spence 583). The insanity of mind-boggling production goals persisted; coal production was to go from 30 million to 270 million tons, grain from 185 million to 525 million tons, and so on throughout the economy (Mosher 264).

As fall arrived and Mao had settled his personal score with those who dared to doubt him, he issued the following order to all of the provincial Party Committees: “On the basis of your actual conditions, adopt all effective measures, squeeze out all of the labor force that can be squeezed out, strengthen the first line of agricultural production, and speedily change the grave situation of the present insufficiency of the labor force” (MacFarquhar 324). In actuality, Mao was simply reacting to provincial initiatives already taking place, including a similar survival policy that had been fully implemented for over three months (Yang 75).

After a long winter, the spring of 1960 witnessed nature’s retaliation for the “war” that had been raged against her. A massive drought affected every province in China, bringing with it pests and diseases, while the worst typhoons in 50 years flooded twelve separate provinces (MacFarquhar 322). By the end of May, an undeniable indicator of widespread disaster came when the grain reserves in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai became totally depleted (Becker 80). Mao was shocked by this and sank into a deep depression in which, according to his librarian, he sometimes sat for long periods of time, gazing at nothing in total silence (Yang 72).

The Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Justice both released internal documents during the first part of 1960 that drew attention to the severity of the famine’s impact. Cases of 96,200 anti-communist activities and 5,700,000 cases of sabotage, assassination, theft, and plunder had been reported over the course of the twelve preceding months (Shi 280-281). Meanwhile, some thirty percent of all rural units in China had already adopted some form of household responsibility and production without central authorization (Yang 241). Moral alienation and corruption followed in the wake of the struggle for survival, as a fundamental change began to occur in the paradigm of China’s goals. Material survival was to come first before any notion of a socialist cause could be acknowledged.

The legacy of this huge famine, in which up to 30 million Chinese had died, devastated agricultural growth for the following six years, finally beginning to recover in 1965 (Clark 244). The impact in areas of industry was similarly intense, as 100,000 enterprises were closed down between 1960 and 1965 so that over 20 million people could be withdrawn from the urban areas to help salvage something from the agricultural disaster and the stagnation that followed (MacFarquhar 330).

In looking at the long-term consequences of the Great Leap Forward and its subsequent famine, a pattern can be seen that transcends all of the movements, campaigns, and other easily labeled events. A considerable amount of work done on the part of China scholars, especially since the Cultural Revolution, attributes major changes in state policy to the Party elites and the campaigns that they initiated (Perry 2). Despite this, in the case of modern reforms in China it can be said that Deng Xiaoping and his economic liberalization initiatives were not simply initiatives from higher-ups who decide the future of their country. These initiatives are at least partially reactions to pervasive patterns that already existed.

It can be said that the national psyche of China was so deeply affected by this devastating event that it served as a psychological imperative for economic growth, regardless of the socialist aspect. Myths, formally held sacred, were permanently undermined, and the moral consensus of the socialist and communist systems was essentially destroyed. When the utopian aspirations of the GLF became seen as a field day for Party corruption, lies, and terrorism practiced on the people of the countryside, the gulf grew between the Party and the masses. This gulf has arguably remained wide since that time, and threatens to grow wider.

Despite the fact that the communes were falling apart by 1961, they were not entirely dismantled until 1984 (Zhang 66). While unofficial change in China is often improvised, official change is often painfully slow. It was not until 1981 that the issues of the GLF were addressed formally by the Communist Party, in a resolution which stated: “Comrade Mao Zedong and many leading comrades, both at the center and in the localities, were impatient for quick results and overestimated the role of man’s subjective will and efforts” (Womack 26).

Mao cannot be thoroughly demonized because of his delusions and the sufferings that they caused; but neither can an apologist stance be taken. In the same respect, the modern economic reforms in China are not simply consequences of a shifting influence in government policy-making, nor can they be fully attributed to the efforts of Deng Xiaoping and the official “Four Modernizations.” The consequences of the GLF and its immediate impact of famine extended into the realm of Chinese political action, which in a modern context is at least partially a reaction to what the Chinese people were already practicing. Forms of economic initiative and autonomy at the village level existed unofficially, years before they became a practice favored by the government. The main stance that emerges from a close examination of the GLF is an admiration for the resilience of a peasantry who are still striving for a better way of life.

Works Cited

Bachman, David. Bureaucracy, Economy, and Leadership in China: The Institutional Origins of the Great Leap Forward. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 1991.

Bardeen, William T. “The Great Leap Forward: Environment and Development in China.” Harvard International Review 17.3 (1995): 64-69.

Bary, Wm. Theodore de, and Richard Lufrano, comps. Sources of Chinese Tradition. 2nd ed. Vol. 2. NewYork: Columbia UP, 2000.

Becker, Jasper. Hungry Ghosts: Mao’s Secret Famine. Rev. ed. New York: Henry Holt, 1998.

Clark, Colin. “Economic Development in Communist China.” The Journal of Political Economy 84.2 (1976):239-264.

Domenach, Jean-Luc. The Origins of the Great Leap Forward. Trans. A. M. Berrett. Oxford: Westview P,1995.

Leung, Laifong. Morning Sun: Interviews with Chinese Writers of the Lost Generation. New York: M. E.Sharpe, 1994.

MacFarquhar, Roderick. The Origins of the Cultural Revolution. Vol. 2. New York: Columbia UP, 1983.

MacFarquhar, Roderick, Timothy Cheek, and Eugene Wu, eds. The Secret Speeches of Chairman Mao: From the Hundred Flowers to the Great Leap Forward. Cambridge: Harvard UP, 1989.

Meisner, Maurice. Mao’s China: A History of the People’s Republic. New York: Macmillan, 1979.

Mosher, Steven W. Broken Earth: The Rural Chinese. New York: Macmillan, 1984.

Perry, Elizabeth J. “Chinese Political Culture Revisited.” Ed. Nora Chang. 2000. Center for EducationalComputing Initiatives, MIT. 5 Nov. 2000 <http://www.nmis.org/gate/links/ Perry.html>.

Qiyu, Shi. “The Decline of a Moral Regime.” Comparative Political Studies 27.2 (1994): 272-297.

Schram, Stuart, ed. Chairman Mao Talks to the People: Talks and Letters 1956-1971. Trans. John Chinnery and Tieyun. New York: Random, 1974.

Shaoqi, Liu. “The Political Report of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to the Eighth National Congress of the Party.” Trans. Foreign Languages Press Beijing.

The Maoist Documentation Project. Ed. Workers Party of New Zealand. 2000. 2 Nov.2000 <http://www.maoism.org/msw/cpc/8th_congress.htm>.

Spence, Jonathan D. The Search for Modern China. New York: Norton, 1990.

Womack, Brantly. “Where Mao Went Wrong: Epistemology and Ideology in Mao’s Leftist Politics.” The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs 10.16 (1986): 23-40.

Yang, Dali L. Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society, and Institutional Change Since the Great Leap Famine. Stanford: Stanford UP, 1996.

Zhang, Zhihong. “Rural Industrialization in China: From Backyard Furnaces to Township and Village Enterprises.” East Asia: An International Quarterly 17.3 (1999): 61-88.

Zhou, Xueguang. “Unorganized Interests and Collective Action in Communist China.” American Sociological Review 58.1 (1993): 54-73.

mindground.net



To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 4:10:19 PM
From: Neocon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition. 2001.

Cultural Revolution


1966–76, mass mobilization of urban Chinese youth inaugurated by Mao Zedong, attempting to prevent development of a bureaucratized Soviet style of communism. Mao closed schools and encouraged students to join Red Guard units, which persecuted Chinese teachers and intellectuals and enforced Mao’s cult of personality. The movement for criticism of party officials, intellectuals, and “bourgeois values” turned violent, and the Red Guard split into factions. Many people died in the ensuing purges. The Cultural Revolution also caused economic disruption; industrial production dropped by 12% from 1966 to 1968. In 1967, Mao ordered the Army to stem Red Guard factionalism but promote the Guard’s radical goals. When the military itself threatened to factionalize, Mao dispersed the Red Guards, and began to rebuild the Party. The Ninth Party Congress (1969), which named Marshal Lin Biao as Mao’s successor, led to a struggle between the military and Premier Zhou Enlai. After Lin’s mysterious death (1971), Mao expressed regrets for the excesses of the Cultural Revolution. However, the Gang of Four, led by Jiang Qing, continued to restrict the arts and enforce ideology, even purging Deng Xiaoping a second time only months before Mao’s death (Sept., 1976). The Gang of Four was imprisoned in Oct., 1976, bringing the movement to a close.

bartleby.com



To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 4:32:52 PM
From: Neocon  Respond to of 281500
 
Here are various estimates of the death tolls resulting from the labor camps, the Great Leap Forward, various purges, the Cultural Revolution, etc. I got tired of underscoring after awhile. I also emboldened some estimated totals:

People's Republic of China, Mao Zedong's regime (1949-1975)
Agence France Press (25 Sept. 1999) citing at length from Courtois, Stephane, Le Livre Noir du Communism:
Rural purges, 1946-49: 2-5M deaths
Urban purges, 1950-57: 1M
Great Leap Forward: 20-43M
Cultural Revolution: 2-7M

Labor Camps: 20M
Tibet: 0.6-1.2M
TOTAL: 44.5 to 72M

Jasper Becker, Hungry Ghosts : Mao's Secret Famine (1996)
Estimates of the death toll from the Great Leap Forward, 1959-61:
Judith Banister, China's Changing Population (1984): 30M excess deaths (acc2 Becker: "the most reliable estimate we have")

Wang Weizhi, Contemporary Chinese Population (1988): 19.5M deaths
Jin Hui (1993): 40M population loss due to "abnormal deaths and reduced births"
Chen Yizi of the System Reform Inst.: 43-46M deaths
Brzezinski:
Forcible collectivization: 27 million peasants
Cultural Revolution: 1-2 million
TOTAL: 29 million deaths under Mao

Daniel Chirot:
Land reform, 1949-56
According to Zhou Enlai: 830,000
According to Mao Zedong: 2-3M
Great Leap Forward: 20-40 million deaths.
Cultural Revolution: 1-20 million

Dictionary of 20C World History: around a half million died in Cultural Rev.
Eckhardt:
Govt executes landlords (1950-51): 1,000,000
Cultural Revolution (1967-68): 50,000
Gilbert:
1958-61 Famine: 30 million deaths.


Kurt Glaser and Stephan Possony, Victims of Politics (1979):
They estimate the body count under Mao to be 38,000,000 to 67,000,000.


Cited by G & P:
Walker Report (see below): 44.3M to 63.8M deaths.
The Government Information Office of Taiwan (18 Sept. 1970): 37M deaths in the PRC.
A Radio Moscow report (7 Apr. 1969): 26.4M people had been exterminated in China.
(NOTE: Obviously the Soviets and Taiwanese would, as enemies, be strongly motivated to exaggerate.)
Guinness Book of World Records:
Although nowadays they don't come right out and declare Mao to be the Top Dog in the Mass Killings category, earlier editions (such as 1978) did, and they cited sources which are similar, but not identical, to the Glaser & Possony sources:
On 7 Apr. 1969 the Soviet government radio reported that 26,300,000 people were killed in China, 1949-65.
In April 1971 the cabinet of the government of Taiwan reported 39,940,000 deaths for the years 1949-69.
The Walker Report (see below): between 32,2500,000 and 61,700,000.
Harff and Gurr:
KMT cadre, rich peasants, landlords (1950-51): 800,000-3,000,000
Cultural Revolution (1966-75): 400,000-850,000
Paul Johnson doesn't give an overall total, but he gives estimates for the principle individual mass dyings of the Mao years:
Land reform, first years of PRC: at least 2 million people perished.
Great Leap Forward: "how many millions died ... is a matter of conjecture."
Cultural Revolution: 400,000, calling the 3 Feb. 1979 estimate by Agence France Presse, "The most widely respected figure".

Meisner, Maurice, Mao's China and After (1986), doesn't give an overall total either, but he does give estimates for the three principle mass dyings of the Mao years:
Terror against the counterrevolutionaries: 2 million people executed during the first three years of the PRC.
Great Leap Forward: 10-20 million famine-related deaths.
Cultural Revolution: 400,000, citing a 1979 estimate by Agence France Presse.


R. J. Rummel:
Estimate:
Democide: 34,361,000 (1949-75)
The principle episodes being...
All movements (1949-58): 11,813,000
incl. Land Reform (1949-53): 4,500,000
Cult. Rev. (1964-75): 1,613,000
Forced Labor (1949-75): 15,000,000
Great Leap Forward (1959-63): 5,680,000 democides
War: 3,399,000
Famine: 34,500,000
Great Leap Forward: 27M famine deaths
TOTAL: 72,260,000

Cited in Rummel:
Li, Cheng-Chung (Republic of China, 1979): 78.86M direct/indirect deaths.
World Anti-Communist League, True Facts of Maoist Tyranny (1971): 64.5M
Glaser & Possony: 38 to 67M (see above)
Walker Report, 1971 (see below): 31.75M to 58.5M casualties of Communism (excluding Korean War).
Current Death Toll of International Communism (1979): 39.9M
Stephen R. Shalom (1984), Center for Asian Studies, Deaths in China Due To Communism: 3M to 4M death toll, excluding famine.
Walker, Robert L., The Human Cost of Communism in China (1971, report to the US Senate Committee of the Judiciary) "Casualties to Communism" (deaths):
1st Civil War (1927-36): .25-.5M
Fighting during Sino-Japanese War (1937-45): 50,000
2nd Civil War (1945-49): 1.25M
Land Reform prior to Liberation: 0.5-1.0M
Political liquidation campaigns: 15-30M
Korean War: 0.5-1.234M
Great Leap Forward: 1-2M
Struggle with minorities: 0.5-1.0M
Cultural Revolution: .25-.5M
Deaths in labor camps: 15-25M
TOTAL: 34.3M to 63.784M
TOTAL FOR PRC: 32M to 59.5M

Weekly Standard, 29 Sept. 1997, "The Laogai Archipelago" by D. Aikman:
Between 1949 and 1997, 50M prisoners passed through the labor camps, and 15,000,000 died (citing Harry Wu)
WHPSI: 1,633,319 political executions and 25,961 deaths from political violence, 1948-77. TOTAL: 1,659,280
Analysis: If we line up the 12 sources which claim to be complete, the median falls in the 39.9 to 45.75 million range, so you probably can't go wrong picking a final number from this neighborhood. Depending on how you want to count some of the incomplete estimates (such as Becker and Meisner) and whether to count a source twice (or thrice, as with Walker) if it's referenced by two different authorities, you can slide the median up and down the scale by many millions. Keep in mind, however, that official Chinese records are hidden from scrutiny, so most of these numbers are pure guesses. It's pointless to get attached to any one of them, because the real number could easily be half or twice any number here.
Perhaps a better way of estimating would be to add up the individual components. The medians here are:
Purges, etc. during the first few years: 2M (10 estimates)
Great Leap Forward: 30M (11 estimates)
Cultural Revolution: 500T (10 estimates)
Ethnic Minorities, primarily Tibetans: 750-900T (8 estimates, see below)
Labor Camps: 15-20M (4 estimates)
This produces a total of some 48,250,000 to 53,400,000 deaths. The weak link in this calculation is in the Labor Camp numbers for which we only have 4 estimates.
Notice that many early body counts (such as Walker) completely miss the famine during the Great Leap Forward, which was largely unknown in the west until around 1980. There are two contradictory ways to assess those early estimates which ignore the famine:
"If these are the numbers that they came up with without the famine, imagine how high the true number will be once you add the famine deaths."
"Can we trust any of these numbers? After all, if they missed such a huge famine, they can't have known very much about what was going on inside China."
... so this line of reasoning will get us nowhere.

users.erols.com



To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 9:23:03 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Yiwu, don't want to overwhelm you with posts. But I work with a woman who immigrated here to America from Beijing. I've never talked much about China with her except for the Tianamen Square period. She said people all over the city were excited and hopeful while they thought there was a chance for reform. But hopelessness was everywhere afterward. She told of the people going into the streets and talking to the first soldiers who entered the city. Many of them put down their arms and went over to the reformers side. Later the government brought in new troops from faraway who were out of touch and they were the ones who were used to crush the movement.



To: RealMuLan who wrote (69175)1/27/2003 11:32:03 PM
From: epsteinbd  Respond to of 281500
 
You remind me of Radio Pekin, in the end of the sixties.

Shortwaves: "Mao tsé Tong est le soleil dand le coeur du peuple - Mao is the sun in the Heart of the people." at least twice in each news bulletin. Before and after the great statistics... And Chou was also some "chouchou" darling.