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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (23434)	1/28/2003 10:43:21 AM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

LOL, ba baba baba ba ba ba! I found it interesting he didn't mention the weakening buck once as a reason for rising gold prices. so, I hope theydo whack POG back down to $280 after we get the ME thing settled.

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (23434)	1/28/2003 10:53:18 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 57110

within 15 minutes am just sitting and staring and drooling on myself. lol... talk about visuals. ------------------------------------- on an O/T matter... financialsense.com Conclusion: As gold approaches the $381 to $386 price level, shares will start to firm and gold’s momentum will slow slightly. This will be due to the operations of the Hedgers and Hedge Funds getting ready to rake in their expected profits. However, as gold trades into the middle $390s you will see the gold shares start to move ahead of gold, momentum-wise, as some of the faster and smarter hedgers will see an abyss of losses opening in front of them. As gold passes $400, which will be to almost everyone’s surprise, the Hedgers will panic and gold shares will go ballistic. These gold share shorts, in certain instances, are simply too large and therefore cannot be covered under any circumstance that I can envision. Like the mountain of derivatives, the hedgers have gone wild in this shorting of the smallest capitalization that can be found in any industry publicly traded, the gold mining industry. What “fundamental factor” have the Hedgers and Hedge funds forgotten that will totally bury them in their gold share shorts well after the Iraq invasion is history? The mistake made by these greedy Hedgers and Hedge Funds is the definition of the USA going it alone. What that means is that no one will share the cost of the operation with the US, but more importantly, share in the cost of reconstruction of Iraq and ita modernization. I gave you a must read as the current issue of “Foreign Affairs.” Basically a mouthpiece of the sitting administration, this journal tends to reflect Washington foreign policy trends relatively well. Reading it that way, and not critically, it can be a useful tool in understanding the impact of international politics on markets. I have already told you that since Lawrence of Arabia, the mistake made by the West concerning Middle East matters have been the same. We fight battles and then, as recently as the Iraq invasion, leave the results in the hands of anything from despots, international criminals to our sworn enemies. As a result, the Mideast situation for their citizens never changes, but in our terms simply gets worse. This invasion will be followed by a rebuilding of Iraq as Bush will not stop the fight unless Hussein and bin Laden are history, or more likely, occupying the same hut somewhere in Upper Mongolia. The cost of this invasion, assuming a short war and the rebuild, is well over “one trillion dollars.” That will be paid for by expansion of the monetary aggregates. As a result of “going it alone,” the USA, who will bear at least 90% of this cost, will gain from the business demand, but loose on the impact of all this on the US Dollar. The US Dollar is building multiple head and shoulders, as did Enron and General Electric, with a dollar downside maximum potential well under the low I have suggested to you at 72 on the USDX. This insures that gold will find its way back in the system to prevent the multiple head and shoulder potential for the US dollar from becoming real market prices. In the final analysis, the War against Iraq will help business activity and hurt the dollar. Gold will rise to a level not expected by the Hedgers and Hedge Funds react and return to the second leg of the long-term bull market from a reaction low so high as to nail the Hedger and Hedge Funds. That low in the reaction to come could even be higher than gold is today. _______________________________________ Me posting this gold-bug stuff ? I wonder if it is a sell signal -g. well, the only thing I have to say in my defense is that once the US Dollar seemed to have re-affirm its downtrend, they say, trends in the currencies last for long periods of time. Once dollar based assets are at risk of what comparetively speaking (i.e. Yen, Euros, Swiss Franc ....and yes gold), and since i do not believe in the EURO or YEN, gold is the logical choice... and yes, i wished i had done this earlier..