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To: diana g who wrote (17523)	1/28/2003 12:52:50 PM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Respond to of 206181

<<<But I think these guys are, in this sense, on the same side as us, in that they are figuring ways to come out post-Saddam with oil facilities intact. It's in their best interest & Iraq's best interest.>>> The CIA is definitely making them aware of this if they haven't already figured this out for themselves

To: diana g who wrote (17523)	1/28/2003 2:31:13 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206181

Saddam's majors - Maybe their best option is to blow up some minor stuff, make sure there's a lot of smoke, then start having radio trouble... keep more explosives and capability in reserve, and see which way the wind blows. Since one of the first things the U.S. will do in the attack is to try to cut communications, there's some chance this will work. Maybe they can send their Saddam loyalists to where the Allied forces are, so they will either get hit or surrender.

To: diana g who wrote (17523)	1/28/2003 3:55:50 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206181

Diana, sounds a bit like the marching order Stalin gave his man looking after the oilfields in the south as Germany was driving on them: 'If you blow up the oilfields, and the Germans fail to take them you'll be shot. If the Germans take the fields and you have failed to blow them up, you'll be shot.' In the end the Germans were stopped short, the oilfields were not demolished, and the man went on to be a Soviet hero. Interestingly enough advance scouts came within sight of the fields. The German drive ground to a halt due to logistics of supply, it was taking ten gallons of fuel to get one gallon to the front. Sharp

To: diana g who wrote (17523)	1/31/2003 11:19:37 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206181

Re: An "easy war", Iraqi tactics. I guess I'm perplexed about the talk that air attacks will defeat Iraqi forces. I'm also perplexed about the notion that the Iraqis just put up the white flags and come towards our lines with pictures of their wives, children and USC degrees. The price for us is going to be much higher than the 91 war. Pollack in his well written book discussed Iraqi resistance. He felt that about a third of Saddum's forces will give up, another third (mostly Sunnis) will put up a decent fight, but the last third, Saddum's goons and thugs, have a lot to lose, given that revenge is such a factor in the ME. Here is a quick review of the last standers: Excepted from Pollack's book "The Threatening Storm": SSO, or al-Amn al-Khas: 5000 thugs The Companions (Murafiqin): about 40 of Hussein's personal bodyguards The Bodyguards (al-Himaya): another ring of about 2000 vicious bodyguards, goons, and mindless robots from Hussein's tribe, al Bu Nasir, totally willing and able to blow up Iraqi oilfields. Special Republican Guards (elite Rep. Guards): four brigades (30,000 troops), well equipped and untouched in the 91 PG War. Mostly likely use: defense (and scorchearth)of oilfields and Baghdad. Republican Guard (professional soldiers, mostly Sunni): although outgunned by US troops, fought hard, few white flags ever seen. Respected by US units who encountered them , mostly in last ditch stands situations (73 Easting, Madinah Ridge) Mukhabbarat: basically the Gestopo, size unknown. al-Amn al-Askiriya (military security): thugs who keep an eye on the loyalty of military units. Fidayin Saddum: hand picked goon squads of up to 100,000 under command of Hussein's psychopath son, Udayy. Tactics: How are you going to counter the likely defense I propose here? If I were running the defense in this war, it would seem I have very limited choices. I would dig into a static defense, because once I moved, the air attacks chew me up. I take my best and most loyal units and dig in around the largest oilfields, and three or four of the largest cities (mostly Bagdad: 4 million civilians) and arm them with machine guns, light anti-tank weapons, and anti-air (mostly against helicopter gunships and low flying jets). Then I dare you to use air assaults and even heavy artillery. Once you lay waste to my cities and kill my civilians (and INCREASE my resistance), I dig into the rubble and buildings and reduce the combat to a version of "Black Hawk Down" and Stalingrad (Saddum is a BIG Stalin fan, and is very versed on this battle). How are you going to "precision bomb" my units out of an apartment building filled with civilians? And if you did the whole world including hawks like me would be furious with you. If you come after me, I wire up and bobby trap my buildings, and as you send your infantry in to clear, I level them. I definitely blow up my oilfields and early on, and take another 2 mbpd off the market at a critical time (US oil inventories are at 30 year lows, SR only supplies 4mbpd: 20% of US demand. We have SR supplies for 30 days of total US demand). So now you have an oil crisis and I'm dug into my cities. Are you going to come get me, or wait me out? If you come get me, how long will it take and at what cost?If you wait me out siege style, for how long?