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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5201)	1/29/2003 10:02:12 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Future Horizons raises 2003 chip market growth estimate By Peter Clarke (01/29/03 09:52 a.m. EST) LONDON, England -- Future Horizons confirmed its position as a bullish forecaster by raising its estimate for 2003 semiconductor market growth to 18% from the 15% or 16% it stated in its December newsletter. Malcolm Penn, chairman and chief executive officer of the firm, said 2004 would be even stronger with 35.2% growth before a return to slump conditions in 2005, brought on by overcapacity in manufacturing. Speaking at his firm's annual Industry Forecast Seminar, held here yesterday (January 28, 2003), Penn said capital investment during 2001 and 2002 aimed at technology introduction rathetr than volume meant a lack of imminent manufacturing capacity coming onstream and that would help achieve a balance between capacity and chip demand in the third quarter of 2003. Thereafter prices for components would rise rapidly and complement already booming unit shipments. “In 2004 all bets are off. We're saying 35% but what we know is that structurally 2004 is a very strong year for reasons of capacity. There will be over-ordering. There will be over building. It's inevitable.” Penn also placed himself in the camp that does not believe that a fundamental change has overtaken the electronics industry causing the long-term growth rate of semiconductors to drop to single digits in percentage terms. “Despite two awful years it's still a double-digit trend line. I am not going to argue with you whether it is 17%, or 15% or 13%, but I do argue that it is not 5%, unlike some people in the industry,” said Penn.