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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26952)	1/29/2003 10:04:00 AM
From: longdong_63	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

slider...I see your point but having trouble digesting the economic situation in the USA. Between the trade deficit, M3, USD, foreign capital outflows, war, terror, redemptions, overvalued indices, bond market bubble, maybe a real estate bubble, etc etc etc. It is hard to slam into my pea brain the idea that gold has topped LT? When the bond market rolls over, where does that money go to? Not to equities after what people have been through...more real estate? Or gold...I believe the operative word for this decade will be tangible assets. True, the miners can be construed as intangible because your invested in paper but they hold something that is tangible in their reserves. Dunno...just my two cents.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26952)	1/29/2003 11:43:02 AM
From: BSGrinder	Respond to of 36161

["The unbridled printing press of the US Government & Bush's relection plans aren't going to let most of the potential upside catalysts for a significantly higher POG unfold anytime soon, without one helluva battle."} The unbridled printing press IS the upside catalyst for gold. When Fed gov Bernanke gave that speech about printing as many dollars as necessary, the alarm bells went off around the world, and anyone with a big pile of dollars started trading some of them in for gold. That process has just begun. And it has only begun for foreigners. Here in the US there is no "broad base of investors now expecting speculative-maniaesque upside" - nobody in retail even knows how to invest in gold! All the market pundits are telling you why gold is going back down. The only people with "mania expectations" are the same guys who have been predicting it for years, maybe .0001% of investors. Almost nobody else is on board yet - how many people do you know outside of these threads that would even consider buying gold? No one I know owns physical and only one has any gold stocks at all. The rest are all still paralyzed watching their 401K's evaporate. The gold stocks ultimately MUST move with the POG. And the POG has only begun to confirm that it is out of a bear market. Taking some profits and playing with the house money is fine, but, IMHO, being out of gold here is foolish. /Kit

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26952)	1/29/2003 5:46:02 PM
From: grusum	Respond to of 36161

Slider: First; everything that is known, is always priced into gold, or any other commodity; both confidence and non-confidence that the War will go well, or won't go well... is balanced into the present price. G: i agree. But many times what we ‘think’ we know isn’t accurate, and that is what i was trying to address. I think the perception is inaccurate that ‘war fears’ are substantially factored into gold. Of course many people don’t want us to go into war, but their fear isn’t that we may lose the battle but rather as you suggested, that there is much uncertainty about what will happen as a ‘result’ of us winning the war. Yes, there is a fear of retaliation by terrorists if we attack Iraq. But i see that as one of the factors that will drive gold up, not down. ------------------------------------------------------------ Slider: The longterm fundamental catalyst in War with Iraq, is the costs involved with the longterm, multi-year stabilizing occupation & propping up of the new Government of Iraq. And Imho, the flood of cheap Oil stimulating global economic recovery may offset those longterm costs. G: i agree with the cheap oil part, but i don’t think a long term recovery is in the cards for the USA, even with cheaper oil. However, i suppose we could actually ‘finance’ a recovery if we unjustly took more oil than we deserved as compensation for the costs of the war. I don’t think world opinion would let us do that, but if this turns out to be a play for global rule, world opinion wouldn’t matter any longer. ------------------------------------------------------------ Slider: On this recent run in Gold, we did not go to new low's in either the USD, or the broad market. Hedging the "unknown" vis a vie "War in Iraq/domestic terrorism retalliation" was what this recent run in Gold & Gold stocks was ALL about imho and clearly so. G: i guess this where we most sharply disagree. I tend to agree with Jim Willie CB that our problems run deeper than retaliation for going to war. Although the USD is definitely connected to the POG, it is not ‘tied’ to it so to speak. There are other problems that can make gold rise faster and more than the dollar declines. One reason may be that other currencies are also losing ground to gold, thus magnifying the effect. Other reasons may be that the perception of gold being a ‘safe haven’ is gaining ground much more so than it has before. I think that it is what people believe in total that shapes their perception about gold or anything else. If no one sees value in gold, then its value would be zero. If everyone valued gold, its price would be at some very high number from what it is now. I think that more and more people will come to value gold as true money and safety for their wealth and as they do so the price will go up. I can’t say exactly what factors are driving the price of gold at any given moment. But i am reasonably certain that we are in the early stages of a gold bull market. Sure there will be pull backs along the way, but i don’t want to be out of gold during the bull. You are an excellent trader, and if i had your skills i’d probably be trading too. But i’m in this for a long time and although you may be right, i’m more comfortable with holding a good position in gold. Only the war will tell us which one of us is right. For my own purposes i’ll consider myself correct if gold doesn’t go down more than $30 during the war even if we are winning the war quite handily. Oh and Slider, thanks for trying to get us to hang on to our profits by being prudent. I may not always take your advice, but your input is always greatly appreciated. best regards, -gru