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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (15975)	1/30/2003 2:02:30 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I just picked that article out of the blue doing a google search. Imo its too old anyway. But I was looking for some substantiation for what I know, that business in software specifically is recovering. That article like most can probably be picked apart on details, nonetheless it has to cast a doubt that things are still deteriorating, no? My question is does this matter to the bears, assuming it is true. Software has a notoriously short lifetime -- I'm talking about enterprise software, the stuff that orcl,psft and sap sell... the lifetime being either 3-4 years for the duration of that release or about 12 years for the underlying technology based on historical standards. Most enterprise software went in, in the mid 90s but early on, say 95. So it will last until late 200x, if this cycle is like the last one. increased spending on software is not the kind of investment that will generate long term profit growth, IMO. Surely you don't suppose that profits are going to appear with sales declining for everyone?? I guess that is the debate. I said on the amat thread I don't think we can have capex software expenditures with no pc upgrade cycle. The last time we had software investment it did generate a capex buying binge, this was early 90s pre-internet so it can happen. That was a much more major upgrade cycle than this one so I'm not saying we're going to have a 92/93 replay of events. But what I am questioning is this resolute belief that nothing is getting better in technology. That just isn't true and stocks reflect it. Lizzie