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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15986)	1/30/2003 5:43:55 PM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 19219

It takes a couple of years and next to no financial investment to become an expert programmer. Software biz is a commosity biz and wherever there are profits, they will be marginalised by competition. That applies to SAP, MSFT, ORCL etc as much as it does to a 3 man business. The industry can grow and some companies will do well. But a basket of software stocks is going nowhere but down for the foreseeable future.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15986)	1/30/2003 5:54:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 19219

Your attitude might make sense if these companies weren't 100-300% off their lows in this bear market, in front of war. It is impossible to be 300% off the highs. At any rate, what does Percent decline have to do with anything. Was ENE a buy at 50% off, 60% off, 80% off, 90% off, or even 98% off? It really does not matter how far things have fallen. They will ALL fall to fair value in TIME. That might take 3 more years or we could crash this year. More than likely we are stuck in a Japanese styye slow grinding down for at least 3 more years. There is every chance of an economic depression here. I rate it at 30% right now. Even IF we muddle thru, we are ultimately headed lower lonng term. There are NO values here. NONE (that one is likely to find anyway). RMBS was a steal if one knew the outcome of the suit, but that is all priced back in now. This economy is being propped up on a wing and a prayer. Consumer spending is 2/3 of the economy and the recklessness of the FED to keep consumers borrowing in the face of diminishing job prospects is so galling it makes me want to puke. It really does NOT matter how far things have fallen. What are they worth, what earnings are sustainable, how much debt do they have, how can they service that debt, and what is a reasonable BEAR MARKET pe for them. Those are the questions you need to answer. M