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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5267)	1/31/2003 12:11:44 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 25522

Brian, traders love uncertainty. FWIW Ken Fisher forbes.com excerpt >I see only two real possibilities for 2003: down a lot or up a lot. Since I don't envision down a lot, I'm bullish. Expect a 40%-plus 2003 S&P.< Take your pick. Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5267)	1/31/2003 12:44:00 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I am not really surprised by today's warning by AMAT. I have been expecting this for some time as AMAT needs probably another rounds of layoff other than one it announced yesterday (175 people in Austin) to stay profitable. The nature of this downturn is vastly different from the previous ones. In previous downturns, chip demand growing even during the downturn. People usually watched amount of chip supply to predict downturn (factory capacity). In this downturn, we are suffering from both weak chip demand and over capacity in chip supply. Only purchase that chipmakers are making these days is related to technological investment related to 0.13 to 0.09 nm processing and copper related areas (copper barrier, ECP, and dual damescene etch). It is not to say that AMAT is not well positioned in these area. But It is true that AMAT does not hold as dominant position as it is used to in other areas. NVLS is really competitive in copper area (Probably better in my opinion) and LRCX is beating AMAT with respect to oxide etch area. So I prefer NVLS and LRCX not only in the valuation stand point but also upside potential perspective as chipmakers will eventually ramp up capacity in the copper related area once they resolve yield issues...