To: bcrafty who wrote (65054 ) 2/1/2003 10:09:22 PM From: John Madarasz Read Replies (2) | Respond to Well, regarding the very important Armstrong 8.6 year business cycle, I think it's important to notice the AREA of many important Indices, and where they were at that time frame...and how the price levels relate to that cycle time. around the world . Lastly, let us say a word about interpreting our 8.6-year half-cycle versus Martin Armstrong's original 8.6 year cycle. Armstrong's cycle hit perfectly on the July 20, 1998 equity high. 8.6 years before that, his cycle also caught the 1989 Japanese Nikkei high to the week ; 8.6 years before that it also caught the May 1981 DJIA high pre- a sharp bear market into August 1982. Taking his cycle further back, it even hit just before the 1929 stock market crash. Maybe in some ways - particularly from a trading perspective -- Armstrong's cycle dates are more precise than our windows for catching significant market turns. Notwithstanding this fact, equities did not stop their ascent post July 20, 1998 as Armstrong predicted they would. The hellacious rally of 1999 into early 2000 thus inspired us at Sand Spring to tweak his methodology in an effort to discover a better overall starting and ending points of the 8.6-year cycle rhythm. We particularly wanted to try to do so extending it further back in time." safehaven.com aegeancapital.com
