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To: Les H who wrote (5324)	1/31/2003 2:31:25 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29600

The Short-Term Outlook: Our Short-term 0utlook from last Thursday still holds, so we're going to leave it up for those of you who missed it, but we do want to add a paragraph here in front of that from last Thursday, to wit: We would nor be surprised to see a substantial, but failing, short-term bear market rally begin sometime in the last half of February or perhaps early March, lasting 5-8 trading sessions or more. That rally will take the McClellan Oscillator sharply and strongly up above the Zero Line, turning the Summation Index dots up. This will mark the end of the Complex Bottom Formation, and the beginning of a Middle Part (above the Zero Line) of a Bottom Formation on the McClellan Oscillator. That will be the failing short-term rally, and if all goes well, will be followed by a Buy Spike plunge of the Oscillator below Zero for a successful re-test of lows around mid-March (Beware dem Ides, Folks!), setting up a positive divergence and a dandy multi-week rally off of the 4 1/2 year (39-week, or 9-month) bottom. Our target date for the "nesting" (i.e., coming together at lows) is March 18th for the 39-week Hurst Nominal Market Cycle (which some prefer to call the 9-month cycle) and all shorter cycles -- the 20-week, 10-week and 5-week. However, it could occur as early as March 12th or as late as March 28th, according to our expert colleague who keeps track of these Hurst cycles for us, Frisco Jim. The point is that these are important lows, from which a dandy and very playable bear market rally will probably ensue. Between now and then, however, we're going to see a very choppy and unstable market, sawtoothing its way down into those lows, interspersed with little dead-cat bounce rallies. Picture a steep downtrend channel, within which popular market averages rally for a day or two sharply up toward the top of the channel, then turn and grind their way down to lower lows at the bottom of the channel, from which another short-term dead-cat bounce occurs. more at marketweb.com