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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (70618)	1/31/2003 2:06:15 PM
From: Rascal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Word is the evidence is from detainees in Cuba and that there is disagreement in the intelligence community in the conclusions reached by the Administration. Probably why President Bush and Rumsfeld both want their own analytical intelligence apparatus. Much easier to produce the evidence you want when you don't have the evidence you need. Troubling about both of the new groups is that they will have no oversight because they are being set up under executive order and not through congress. So it will have to be funded throught the executive budget I believe. Rascal@ KBG.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (70618)	1/31/2003 2:09:12 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 281500

My original sentence "The intellectuals of the ideological left of the democratic party as well as on this thread are way out on a limb that Colin Powell, their erstwhile hero may get to saw off." Mike But i would add that the real opposition (as opposed to the folks who are nervous but converted or can be converted by CP) only represent 20-25% of the populace imo. What i meant by "sawing off" is separating the true believers from the formerly nervous folks who might have been seen to be allied with them. mike

To: LindyBill who wrote (70618)	1/31/2003 2:27:40 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I don't think so, mike. There is obviously a major debate going on in the NSC over how much to disclose. I think that no matter what Powell says, the people who are opposed to us going in will not change their position, and we will invade with a divided country. But we will invade. You would have to impeach Bush and remove him from office to stop it. (Barring Saddam running, of course.) Bill, I think this is too dichotomous. Both support for the invasion and opposition to it exists along a spectrum. Bush's speeches or lack thereof (his sort of petulant one liners) move both individuals and the aggregates several points along the dimensions. If Powell makes a fairly decent speech, it will move both a few notches (on, say, a 100 point scale) closer to supporting Bush; if he does something better, you simply get more folk moving further distances. I kind of liked the point somebody said Frum made about Rove, that Rove thought in terms of electoral groups and how to move them percentages. Same point.