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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (17667)	1/31/2003 3:09:59 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206272

Arch, Maybe you are right, but I would beg to differ with you, for the next month or two at least. IMO there's a good chance that Feb Henry Hub will average over $5.50 and March could come in right around that figure also. Based on the record-breaking weather-adjusted draws we are getting, with little drilling response, this shortfall of supply vs. demand is gonna be with us for at least the next coupla months. I know its gonna get warmer but that is already adjusted out of the equation. Whether or not there's a spike is not really relevant to the intermediate term picture IMO. Other than a short placed at the top of one of said spikes I would not wanna ever be short natty in the next coupla months. I don't feel so strongly about this that I am playing the futures though.....

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (17667)	2/1/2003 3:46:48 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206272

Archimedes - Your comments on NG futures are useful. You also have the prespective that the response of E&P stocks and OSX stocks might be muted, and that most of the run up has already occured. Is this because the Q4 numbers aren't that good, or the stocks are too high already ?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (17667)	2/1/2003 7:30:57 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206272

Arch I agree 100%, you must now accept that perhaps we are at the top in NG as well as w. Crude. If so it could be a long way down once the unwinding occurs. If I recall one poster on this board, he ranted the exact scenerio we are in and should give us OSX 130-150. Lets look where we are now, probably close to the top of the draw season perhaps another 3-4 before shoulder season sets in. Looking at crude its at the ceiling of 33-34 BBL perhaps on its way to 36-37 briefly, but if Caracas cracks which I believe America is correcting that problem and with OPEC increase as well as a soft economy, can any tell me how we are not already at the TOP in crude or close and the same for the OSX? Lets say those Iraq fields get torched, we are already factoring in ZERO IRAQ crude for duration of war. Those fire were put out in kuwait with weeks of wars ending, and an article I read last week said they have perfected the method of putting oil well fires out since 1991. So the bottom line I think at 33 crude is discounting Iraq non-oil. The most prudent investors and fund managers are looking out 3-6 months maybe even a year. US will have full control of the Iraq Crude and let me say this as clearly as I can, it will be a full throttle. So will be Caracas and so will be Russia. Crude will tank to below $18BBL and the US will finally show some economic growth due to rebuilding ME, and the low crude prices. All while the OSX make fresh 2 year lows. Good luck all!