Prediction Dude..
Here are some predictions from Harry Schultz via Puplava..
Web note The following is taken from the January 26, 2003 issue.
The Big Picture Let’s be clear about this: it is not govt that is calling the shots now in the financial world. It’s mkt
forces. That’s another way of saying mkt forces are out of control—of the govt or private sector or society. This massive credit
& money pumping by govts is being forced on them & ironically is having no significant effect. Nor will it! Why not? It usually
works. Correct! But it can’t now. Why not? Read on.
Are U for or against Capital Punishment? If the capital is your cash capital, I’m against it. It’s a crime that people are getting
such bad advice. The capital punishment of the past 3 downhill stock mkt years has been horrendous. Mkt averages were down
20-45% around the world. But the averages mask the individual stocks, which saw hundreds falling 50-80%. And to say the mkts
can’t fall a 4th year is sacrilegious to the truth. It’s happened before. If U bought stk at the 1929 high, it was 1953, 24yrs later,
when U got your money back. If U bought at the 1966 high, it was 1993 before U broke even, 27yrs later. Fortunately, there are
always a minority of stks that rise in bear mkts. Currently that pinpoints the gold shares, the only sector group in a bull mkt
(commodities aside) & one destined to be sustained for several more years.
Morgan Stanley strategist Stephen Roach is a 5 star US economist in a world of mostly 2 stars. He & I have been on the same
wavelength for a long time. His view & mine today is: “The world will be disappointed if it expects the US engine to pull the global
train out of the current mudhole.” The nearest to an engine is China, but not much, yet. In most economic cycles it’s possible to
ramp up a weak economy with monetary & fiscal actions. But in between those normal cycles comes the exceptional one, the last
being 1931. It’s when pumping money into the system does no good whatever. The old push-on-a-string problem. There’s no
“traction.” That’s what U need to get out of mud or snow with a car. The US$ is destined to continue falling, which will help US
trade deficits a bit, but leave the rest of world in a deepening trade mud. The US$ needs to fall another 15-20% to bring US
current-acnt deficit down to a more sustainable level of aprox 2.5% of GDP.
And it’s not a matter of time lags before something kicks in. Not this time. Think! Fed easing started 2yrs ago! And
untypically, the US economy has not responded. To quote S. Roach: “It’s not about lags or the stimulus in the (fairy tale)
pipeline. It’s about the legacy effect of the biggest asset bubble in 70 yrs. Just ask Japan.” Exactly! There’s no pent-up
demand or inventory dynamic, but lots of debt—federal, state, corp, private. But investors (read sheep) are so
conditioned to give govt the benefit of the doubt, they will read this govt reflation program as stk mkt bullish, despite
2yrs of evidence to the contrary. I echo Roach’s words on that point: “I fear investor confidence will be severely shaken
in the not-so-distant future.”
2003 I’m going to devote the rest of Big Picture to predictions, a highly inexact art form J. I reserve the right to be wrong on
all counts. ••• 1. Deflation will be 2003’s major economic threat, thanks to China. 2. Gold will easily exceed $400. My tgt: $440.
$500 not unlikely. 3. Stock mkts will have a 4th year down, making them Shock Mkts. 4. US unemployment will reach 6.5%, perhaps
6.7%. Biz downsizing, instead of ending, is just shifting gears. Govt doesn’t count those no longer seeking work; real US jobless
rate is aprox 9-10%, same as Europe whose govts don’t fudge job figures. 5. The property bubble won’t pop until/unless interest
rates turn up, not only by the mkt but also by US Fed. Houses in the $500K & up bracket, already down 12%, will drop another
12%, in most areas. Houses just under 500K will dip 7% in most areas. Houses in $150K to $350K will gain, due to shortage in this
category.
6. Inflation will be mild & spotty. Aprox 50% of prices will fall, 50% rise, a checkerboard that will defy categorization, though my
recently dubbed word Slumpflation comes close. 7. Oil will touch $40/bbl. If Saddam blows his oil-top (ignite oil fields) price
rises to $50 min. 8. US dollar (US$ index) now 99, droops to 80. Possibly 75. 9. US interest rates will drop from 1.25 now to .75.
Then up to 2.25, but that’s probably not til 2004. 10. Maul Street: DJIA will drop to 7000. Possibly 6000, though that could be
in 2004. Nasdaq Comp will drop to 985. S&P will drop to 705. Later to 650 but that may be 2004. These prices will be touched,
but perhaps not maintained. 11, Gold will drop $25 after Iraq war won, if it is. But recover in 4-5 wks.
12. US S&P corp earnings are expected by consensus to rise 13%. IMO they will be flat: 0% growth. Negative earnings are a
possibility. 13. US GDP? +1% at best. 14. Web site companies will continue to shut down, especially those with free news services.
Most will switch to paid news or shut. 75% of web companies have already closed. 15. US govt bonds will fade. German & UK govt
bonds will hold. AAA corp bonds best wager. 16. This bear mkt will last for several more years. Hugh Hendry, my favourite UK
analyst, a Scot, says 10-15yrs. Very possible. But, typical papa bear mkts have 50% rallies, which are a de facto baby bull mkt. U
can play the long side in them, using normal tech analysis/charts/HSL. One reason I like Hugh: he says on CNBC-Europe: “Gold is
not a commodity; it is money!” TV producers take aspirin when he’s on. He’s a top performing fund mgr. He is always both
long&short, as I also usually am. My kind of shock mkt investor. 17. China’s GDP growth will equal its 8% of 2002 as world
dependency on her cheap prices will grow. 18. Corp earnings will shrink, along with stock prices, thanks to China, debt & deflation.
Most (not all) companies have no pricing power; can’t raise prices. 19. Consumer spending will begin a longterm decline.
Skilled chartists have the best chance of surviving the hodge-podge, war-nervous, spin-ful, politically-polluted investment climate
of ’03. That makes it incumbent on U to study chart techniques & study the masters (maybe 25 in world). Takes discipline &
organization. Note: everything is predictable by charts, given an error factor of 15% (with politics & war, error factor is 35%
IMO), including individual human behaviour. Charts, after all, are people patterns. Not every claimed chartist really understands
them beyond the basics. Read the Edwards&Magee book before U really know the word: chart. |
