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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8339)	2/1/2003 10:39:26 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95743

Gottfried and all. I'm going to suggest again that we all try to get on the same page. It will pay off in the long run if we do. Whatever good information Hulbert shares in his newsletter his data on investor sentiment (or Barrons for that matter) is meaningless to me because we cannot see it on a chart to follow its effect on the market. We can do that the the newsletter writer sentiment here: vtoreport.com Page down to see the effect of overly bullish reading like we have now. Quite simply the market is likely to fall until we get another cross over showing more bears than bulls on a percentage basis. Ideally we would like to see 55% bears to announce the absolute bottom but just like bpcomp not reaching 50% to announce a top the difference between bulls and bears never got to 29% to announce a top. Anyway, bottom line is that these charts will work though we can't always expect extreme enough ratings to announce tops and bottoms. The other investors sentiment readings if they are to be useful to us have to have a history of predicting market tops and bottoms within a couple of weeks like this newsletter writers intelligence report has done. Thanks for updating the chart Gottfried: home.attbi.com And thanks for getting a note through to Don. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (8339)	2/1/2003 9:24:11 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95743

>> sure, but what do you do if it doesn't reach 50% Gottfried, Perhaps this will be considered heresy, but I think there may be another 2 factors here. 1- Maybe bullish speculators simply ran out of money before the bpcompq got overbought enough as the previous times that it reached 55%. or 2- Maybe it would have reached 55% this time too, if it was given a couple more days. But the timing of the State of Union speech and other events cut short that process. There were many predictions that the speech would increase the momentum to the war. And therefor the next day the market would sell off. So a lot of people positioned themselves for the event by selling earlier. And co-incidentally, the bp number was just below 50%. So in my opinion the bp indicator is not predictive. If I live long enough to see the return of the bull market, my bet is the bp % will go a lot higher than 55% before it turns down. Sarmad