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To: orkrious who wrote (218199)	2/1/2003 9:47:42 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I couldn't sleep much after I read that <ng> My visceral response was "c'mon Doug -- this is the US" but then my reaction to my reaction was ... we are in deep sh&t -- just look at those "exponential figures" in the first part of the piece. We should be so lucky to wind up just like Japan ... Do you still believe a panic isn't coming??

To: orkrious who wrote (218199)	2/1/2003 10:01:54 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Prudent Bear is Wrong! I like the analysis at Prudent Bear a lot, but in my opinion they are way off base in their "huge" concerns about financial sector debt. It's not so much that private debt in the US isn't very high like they say. It is. However, they are double counting portions of it. Ex. If I borrow $10 dollars from my father, that is one debt. If my brother borrows $10 from my father, that is one debt. In total, that is two debts for a sum of $20 owed to my father. He is at risk $20. Ex2. If I borrow $10 dollars from my father, that is one debt. If my brother then borrows the $10 from "ME", that is one debt. There are two debts there, but clearly the situation is different. If my brother pays me, I can pay my father. If either my brother or I default, the most my father can lose is $10. In the first example, his potential loss was $20. The various asset backed securities vehicles like FRE, FNMA, etc... behave like example 2. They borrow to finance the purchase of mortages which they then either retain or sell. If you count the debt twice, it will scare the crap out of you because it looks like total debt is running wild. That's because asset backs are a relatively new phenomenon in terms of current size of market. Private debt in the US is very high and I don't mean to minimize the problem, but Prudent Bear has been wrong about the details of this for about the last 5 years. If those entities blow up, it will be because of the actual debt outstanding counted correctly, not because of the way they are viewing it.

To: orkrious who wrote (218199)	2/1/2003 10:02:11 AM
From: Terry Maloney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Ork, gotta agree. With Casey Jones still driving this train, the Japanese scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely. Trouble ahead, trouble behind ... <g/ng>

To: orkrious who wrote (218199)	2/1/2003 11:57:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Fourth Quarter GDP - The More You Delve, The Uglier It Gets January 31, 2003 northerntrust.com Interesting call for inflation or stagflation in this snip. Lastly, the Blue Chip consensus forecast is for about 3% annualized real GDP growth in the first half of this year. So, we shouldn't be too alarmed by the weakness in this past fourth quarter's real GDP growth. Or should we? The deceleration in real M2 growth suggests that aggregate demand growth is going to be none too robust in the first half of this year, as shown in Chart 11. Perhaps nominal money supply growth, at least, will begin to perk up as the federal government's demand for credit mushrooms this year. If this increased federal government demand for credit is not fully offset by weaker state/local government and private demands for credit, then interest rates will "want" to rise. But my bet is the Fed would try to prevent this rise in interest rates in 2003 by printing more money. Another factor that could put incipient upward pressure on U.S. interest rates is a decreasing willingness by the rest of the world to advance us almost $1.5 billion a day. And to think, some analysts are worried about deflation! M