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To: Les H who wrote (5345)	2/1/2003 3:16:26 PM
From: Chris McConnel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29594

Global: On the Edge Stephen Roach (New York) The just-released US GDP report for the fourth quarter of 2002 is an important warning sign. It paints a picture of a US economy that has slowed to its "stall speed" before it was hit with the full force of any impacts associated with looming war in Iraq. To the extent that a further shock is in the offing, I fear it will be exceedingly difficult for the United States to avoid a recessionary relapse. The risk is it may already be too late. morganstanley.com