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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (117)	2/1/2003 9:02:01 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

It may take a while. US bonds may have already seen the tops but Europe don't. I talked to some London bankers who don't deny that there is plenty of new issues coming to the market taking advantage of low rates but, with no recovery in sight, the prices may forge a little further and yields (EUR, 10Y) may top out at 3.75 at the end of Q2. But it is never too late to take a position, and perhaps much easier once a downtrend has been established...there is plenty of downside if and when the pole is broken. Watch out for "unexpected" negative surprises in federal budgets in Europe- France, Germany and perhaps U.K. Right now the finance ministers are still touting they are "right on track" and there are no new financing needs. There are, but they don't say it right now.

To: Londo who wrote (117)	2/1/2003 9:06:14 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 666

Reviewing the article, one thing is really troubling: >>>> 'BAD-TASTING SOUP' "You also have people that I would assume aren't even bothering to put money in a money fund," he said. "With yields below 1 percent, they'll get their check and put it in their checking account at the bank." >>>> It looks like the idea to cut rates until money is being put back into the equity market somehow backfired...instead it is kept in cash,... I really wonder how long it takes to achieve that - perhaps 2, 3 years from now.