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To: Softechie who wrote (5355)	2/1/2003 7:58:17 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 29594

MARKET WATCH advertisement A Sampling of Advisory Opinion The Financial Commentator 3578 Camino Arena Carlsbad, Calif. 92009 E-mail: wmm225@aol.com JAN. 22 ~ I don't believe that even a peaceful resolution [with Iraq] will materially solve the economic problems we have been dealing with for the past three years. If 12 interest-rate cuts and a fiscal-stimulus package couldn't reduce the excess-capacity overhang and restore some pricing power to companies, how can a peaceful solution or quick victory in Iraq make a bigger impact? Of course, the stock market would rally and a very modest increase in economic activity would also follow. But would it lead to a sustained pickup in demand and spending?...The answer to that key question is possibly, but not likely. Can you imagine the disappointment that would ensue if the Iraq issue was resolved favorably and the economy didn't recover? Nope. Don't want to go there! -- E. James Welch Repex Market Comments Repex & Co. 550 Durie Ave., P.O. Box 577 Closter, N.J. 07624 Web: www.repexinvestments.com JAN. 27 ~ Fiscal stimulus is on its way, so are tax cuts and higher defense spending. Fundamentals will prevail over geopolitics. The market is, however, only fairly valued on our conservative assumptions. Based on the Fed's model of stock valuations, the S&P 500 is 12.6% undervalued; on the other hand, on a median historic price/earnings ratio of 16 times, stocks are 9.9% overvalued. On average, the market is only about fairly valued, on balance. For the near-term, the risk/reward favors the upside within recent trading ranges. -- Erich and David Sokolower Positive Economic Commentary Northern Trust 50 South LaSalle St. Chicago, Ill. 60675 Web: www.northerntrust.com JAN. 27 ~ On July 9, a new president of the European Central Bank will take over. He most likely will be more sympathetic to cutting interest rates in an effort to crank up the pace of economic activity in the euro zone if a recovery is not apparent by then. The Bank of England gets a new governor June 30. He will be under pressure to cut rates if the U.K. economy is not showing stronger growth. In sum, expectations will be growing for declining central bank policy interest rates in the U.S., the U.K. and the euro zone in coming months. This argues for lower inflation-adjusted money-market interest rates in terms of these three currencies. In other words, it is likely to become more difficult to get an honest return on your money in major capital markets...When investors cannot get an honest return on their money, they turn to other liquid assets that protect them from the ravages of inflation -- gold being one of them. -- Paul L. Kasriel Mercury Management Associates 300 9th Street North, Suite 3 Great Falls, Mont. 59401 JAN. 29 ~ The market's terrifically oversold here. That isn't to say it's impossible for it to get even a bit more oversold. However, it has also begun to assert itself at the very first touch of support from the huge bottom zone created last fall. These things make me very anxious to get long the market, and my only hesitance is the possibility of some further bit of weakness before war starts. In this market, even a day or two of weakness can be a lot in terms of points and dollars. -- Morry Markovitz Global Economic & Strategy Research UBS Warburg 677 Washington Blvd. Stamford, Conn. 06901 Web: www.ubswarburg.com JAN. 28 ~ Orders for nondefense capital goods, which are a key indicator of capital spending, were about flat (-0.1%) in December. For the quarter, these orders fell 1% annualized, little changed from the 0.6% decline in the third quarter of 2002. However, December wasn't as far below the quarterly average as in the two prior quarters -- that capital goods series has shown a tendency recently for exaggerated weakness in the third month of the quarter and then a surge in the following month. In that context, even -0.1% is encouraging, consistent with our forecast that capital spending on equipment and software will pick up in 2003. More generally, the strength in the manufacturing ISM new-orders index in the December report suggests that overall orders are poised to strengthen in coming months, even if the December durables report didn't show a decisive change in trend. -- Maury Harris -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To be considered for this section, material should be sent to MarketWatch@barrons.com