Interview with Martin van Creveld
indymedia.org
The prominent Dutch magazine Elsevier has published a
conversation with Dutch-Israeli military historian
Martin van Creveld. The following has been translated
from the Dutch [and then from the German]":
"We Are Destroying Ourselves."
"In Israel a scenario of doom is taking shape."
Professor Martin van Creveld, an internationally known
and controversial professor of military history at the
Hebrew University in Jerusalem, foresees only extreme
developments for the appreciable future. The methods
by which Israel is currently combating the Intifada
are doomed to failure. The chances for peace and the
founding of a Palestinian state are visibly
diminishing. A conversation with a pessimist, who, as
he himself says, is reviled in his own country.
Interviewer: Your specialty is war. Is what's going on
here war at all?
Creveld: Certainly, although the Palestinians have no
government, no army, and no [nationality]. Everything
is in chaos. That's why we won't win the war, either.
If we could identify and eliminate every terrorist,
we'd win this struggle within forty-eight hours. The
Palestinian administration has the same difficulties.
Even in Arafat decided to comply with our conditions
and surrender tomorrow, it's virtually certain that
the Intifada would continue.
Interviewer: Are there any similarities on the Israeli
side?
Creveld: If the dispute lasts much longer, the Israeli
government will lose control of its people. For people
will say: "If government can't protect us, what on
earth can they do for us? If the government can't
guarantee that we'll be alive tomorrow, what good are
they? We'll defend ourselves."
Interviewer: So Israel is beaten in advance?
Creveld: On that I'll quote Henry Kissinger: "In
campaigns like this the antiterror forces lose,
because they don't win, and the rebels win by not
losing." That certainly applies here. I regard a total
Israeli defeat as unavoidable. That will mean the
collapse of the Israeli state and society. We'll
destroy ourselves.
Interviewer: Is there any point to the recent Israeli
military offensive?
Creveld: This offensive is totally useless; it's only
further enraging the Palestinians. Perhaps there will
be a short-lived calm, but in the end there will even
more suicide attackers.
Interviewer: Is there any hope?
Creveld: If I were Arafat, I wouldn't stop either. I'd
only cease in exchange for a very far-reaching
political accord. And it seems as if we have a
government [under Sharon-tr.] that won't make Arafat
such an offer. If elections were held today, the Left
would be thoroughly beaten.
Interviewer: Some maintain that it is Israel's foreign
enemies that keep the country unified.
Creveld: That's right. I only wish that there were
foreign enemies, but that isn't the case. We've fought
our external enemies for so many years. Each time
there was a war, we took a mighty hammer to our foes,
and after being defeated a few times, they left us
alone. The problem with the Palestinian revolt is that
it doesn't come from without, but rather from within.
Therefore we can't avail ourselves of the hammer.
Interviewer: Is the solution, then, to keep the
Palestinians outside the borders?
Creveld: Exactly, and right now there's nearly
unanimous agreement on that. We ought to build a wall
"so high, that not even a bird can fly over it." The
only problem is: where to put the border? Since we
can't decide whether the territories conquered in 1967
should be included, for the time being we improvise a
little. We're building a series of little walls, which
are much more difficult to defend. From a military
standpoint this is very stupid. Every supermarket has
gradually acquired its own living wall of security
guards. Half the Israeli population is guarding the
other half-unbelievable. Aside from the fantastic
waste, it's almost totally useless.
Interviewer: Does that mean that the Palestinians stay
within the borders?
Creveld: No, it means that they all get deported. The
people who strive for this are waiting only for the
right man and the right time. Two years ago only 7 or
8 percent of Israelis were of the opinion that this
would be the best solution, two months ago it was 33
percent and now, according to a Gallup poll, the
figure is 44 percent.
Interviewer: Will that ever be possible?
Creveld: Sure, since desperate times give rise to
desperate measures. Today there's a fifty-fifty split
on where the border should run. Two years ago 90
percent wanted the wall built along the old border.
That has completely changed now, and if things
continue, if the terror doesn't stop, in another two
years perhaps 90 percent will want to build the wall
along the Jordan. The Palestinians talk of "summutt,"
meaning hang tough, cling to the ground and the soil.
I have enormous respect for the Palestinians. They
fight heroically. But if we in fact want to strike
across the Jordan, we would need only a few brigades.
If the Syrians or the Egyptians were to try to stop
us, we'd wipe them out. Ariel Sharon is leader. He
never improvises: he always has a plan.
Interviewer: A plan to deport the Palestinians?
Creveld: I think it's quite possible that he wants to
do that. He wants to escalate the conflict. He knows
that nothing else we do will succeed.
Interviewer: Do you think that the world will allow
that kind of ethnic cleansing?
Creveld: That depends on who does it and how quickly
it happens. We possess several hundred atomic warheads
and rockets and can launch them at targets in all
directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European
capitals are targets for our air force.
Interviewer: Wouldn't Israel then become a rogue
state?
Creveld: Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: "Israel
must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother." I
consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have
to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at
all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the
thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the
second or third. We have the capability to take the
world down with us. And I can assure you that that
will happen, before Israel goes under.
Interviewer: This isn't your own position, is it?
Creveld: Of course not. You asked me what might happen
and I've laid it out. The only question is whether it
is already too late for the other solution, which I
support, and whether Israeli public opinion can still
be convinced. I think it's too late. With each passing
day the expulsion of the Palestinians grows more
probable. The alternative would be the total
annihilation and disintegration of Israel. What do you
expect from us?
This interview was conducted by Ferry Biedermann in
Jerusalem. |
