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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (16004)	2/2/2003 12:12:35 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

crap stocks tend 2 fly before a major fall. Thats one of those market cliches... and I agree it seems to work but the "crap" they usually refer to are very small cap companes (200mm and below) or really highly spec stuff like cmgi. I am talking about oracle, nextel, macromedia, amazon companies like that - big difference. You can see how such carnage always follows flying crap by looking at how market plummets have ALWAYS followed high $BPCOMPQ readings. Sure, that bpcompq is a worthwhile indicator within a range but what I believe is that nextel is not going back to the 2's, or beas the 4s or macr the 5's, in other words a 75% fall from here on these stocks seems unlikely. You can see it on bad mkt days, these guys barely move to the downside, RS is high. If you want to talk about trading between some channel then bpcompq seems to work. I agree with JT that either July or Oct was the bottom for the emerging leading stocks, I think what you may be talking about are the big cap stocks like msft... I don't know where the bottom is for those, especially the PC business which looks to be maturing. But that isn't the entire market. Not every big cap stock is in the "likely to fall" bucket either... ebay for example is exhibiting strength, oracle too- I doubt either of those gets to the oct lows in the war downdraft- although I am not ruling it out, whereas for the smaller stocks it seems extremely unlikely. is a disastrous misread of the situation. LOL!