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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16017)	2/2/2003 10:14:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 19219

Actually I know next to nothing about MacroMedia. I just looked at some stuff on YHOO profile before I posted. Switching costs are irrelevant if there is no growth and no upgrades. CSCO "supposedly" has hig switching costs, but where is the growth in routers. OK CSCO is not software, but what has ORCL done lately? This looks pathetic to me. For the six months ended 11/30/02, revenues fell 7% to $4.34 billion. Net income fell 17% to $877.6 million. Revenues reflect reduced service revenues and new software license sales. There is no growth here. The question is what is that non-growth worth? I would suggest a PE about half that perhaps. The other problem I have is the affect of stock options on earnings. Did ORCL really make any money at all? I bet 1/2 of what they reported. There is NO reason whatsoever to think ORCL growth is going to return. I would suggest the same for BEAS as well. BEAS is really pathetic at a PE of 800 or whatever. Pray tell what is to like about this? For the nine months ended 10/31/02, revenues fell 8% to $684.7 million. Net income totaled $48.8 million, vs. a loss of $46.3 million. Results reflect decreased licensing sales, due to the challenging IT spending environment; offset by the absence of amortization of goodwill, facilities severance charges and impairment of goodwill. I see no reason for BEAS to turn around and every reason to think it will not. That does not mean people will not bid it up. In fact thay already have. There is no growth here, that is all I am saying, and I am quite confident of it. M