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To: jjstingray who wrote (65168)	2/2/2003 11:35:47 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

jj, "collapses do not happen when everyone is looking for them" But, despite your observation on puts, this is not a time when everyone is looking for one. Here are two points against your view: the VIX is not quite high enough to argue much fear now: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclnnay[df][pb50!b200!f][iUb14]&pref=G And instead of looking for a collapse it looks like a good many are looking for just the opposite: Message 18505993

To: jjstingray who wrote (65168)	2/2/2003 11:42:03 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

jj, I don't have an analytical model that I punch everyday. Wanting to work on one and put one together, but too busy working on vibration and fatigue problems. I have been following some key market parameters as usual and have to admit I don't follow you here. The equity put/call ratios do not show excessive pessimism in my opinion. More on the optimistic side yet I'd say. Haven't looked at any BP's this week. My eyeball wave analysis of TRIN patterns (remember I do a lot of this on a daily basis), McCellen's, summation indexes, VIX patterns, etc. indicates more down to me, and potential deep endings. You've got to remember that the bounds of these should continue to extend, as the bear progresses. For example the summation index on the SPX could hit -3000 or so, at next bottom. If Prechter is correct and the 3 of 3 is in progress, which I presently favor, it is going to go on for a long time. And it is going to be brutal. I also think Bush and co are also using accounting gimmicks to hide debt, and before this year is over could have trouble funding it. The dollar has a long ways down yet to go imho. The currency issues are probably the most important aspects of this whole affair, and yet probably the most difficult to correctly predict. The more I think of Prechter's comments and warnings the more I think there are reasons to be very concerned. Even if one is on the right side of things, I'm beginning to worry about the security of my portfolio accounts. And then we have Doug Noland. Talk about bearish. He is talking about a literal implosion. prudentbear.com Instead of being greedy, one should probably think security first, and be greedy second.