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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (540)	2/3/2003 10:02:47 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 1210

will be watching with interest -- wanted to share that, beacuse it supports your idea. Esp. the export of more technically oriented service jobs -- more programming being done in India, for instance. Have you listened to that Prechter interview? I found it to be worthwhile, though I do not agree with everything he says -- I am keeping an open mind.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (540)	2/3/2003 11:39:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

WHY PRECHTERIAN THEORY IS WRONG ON GOLD Nelson Hultberg -snip--- The important point for gold in all this is whether Elliott Wave theory shows the 20 year bear market from 1980 to 2000 to be ended, or is gold's bear market merely correcting, and doomed to be resumed eventually finishing at a lower price down the road? If the last two years of price action has formed a solid impulsive wave up, then the bear market is over. If, however, the price action is forming a corrective wave up, then the bear market is to be resumed. The foremost practitioner of Elliott Wave theory, Robert Prechter, has stated for the past two years now that gold is merely correcting. The wave pattern up throughout 2001 and 2002, he maintains, is not impulsive. It is a corrective wave only, and the 20 year bear market will continue on in the deflationary Kondratieff winter, with gold eventually selling for under $200. I am not a card carrying expert in Elliott Wave theory, but I do understand its basics, having read most of Prechter's books and having charted countless wave patterns of the Dow, the S&P, the Dollar, Gold, and Silver, etc. in the markets for the past seven years. I have the utmost respect for Robert Prechter. His work over the past 25 years in formulating a cogent exposition of Elliott's theory of price movement is a masterpiece of clarity and understanding. He has integrated it all into the Kondratieff Cycle theory, and has added a vast array of prescient insights to further the body of knowledge that Elliott began. This has enlightened us all in many ways. But that being said, the primary question is whether gold's bear market is over. The question is whether the wave pattern for 2001 and 2002 is impulsive or corrective. Is Mr. Prechter right, or has he perhaps succumbed to a flawed analysis of what is taking place today? I believe it is the latter, that he has made a wrong call on gold, and that the price action of the past two years is indeed impulsive. To get a better grip on this, we need to view the chart pattern of gold on a monthly basis. Below is a clear depiction of it that appeared in John Murphy's January 27th article here on Gold-Eagle entitled, "Gold Bull Market is Based on More than Iraq." It shows prices forming a double bottom in August of 1999 and April 2001, and then an upward 5-wave pattern that is bullish, i.e., impulsive beginning from there. -snip---- gold-eagle.com