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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (12560)	2/6/2003 12:40:42 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Challenge job cut figures are more reliable watch the jobs report on Friday show steady jobless rate at 6.0% I read in various sources that Europe counts those who have given up looking, to get 10% jobless some sources say that US jobless rate is 8-10% now I believe that higher rate USGovt deceptive econ reporting continues all for the greater good / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (12560)	2/6/2003 2:20:38 AM
From: Conan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

stockman: Just caught up with a few hundred posts on the thread today and was dismayed to read more about Bush and Iraq than gold. Since you have no concerns about changing the subject here is my 2 cents: 1) US war in Iraq is a reasonable risk IMO. Geopolitical upside appears to make risks of war problems acceptable. 2) It is mostly about oil. But not about owning it. It is about controlling it. Controlling how much is pumped out and sold. Controlling who builds the new oil infrastructure in Iraq and who does not. 3) Geopolitical benefits of victory include isolating Syria, making it harder for Iran/Hizbollah to put missiles in Lebanon, and marginalizing the Saudis in terms of oil reserves and production. 4) Post war commitments will not be insignificant. Probably we will be basing the equivalent of an Army Corps (-) plus lots of Air Force resources in Iraq for years after the war. Some can be shifted from Europe but others will rotate in from the US and will eventually include Guard/Reserve units. If the Muslim world is convinced we are the "Great Satan" we might as well reap the benefits since we are going to bear the costs too regardless of what we do. 5) War in Iraq is an excellent political diversion from the current economic slump. Bush didn't create the slump but he has made great use of 9-11 event to distract and rally the country. It works. Bush's actions over the past 18 months are easier to justify than Clinton's cruise missile attack on an Ethiopian milk factory. Just hope that current success doesn't tempt others in the future to make more risky bets... 6) Watch Bush shift attention to N Korea once Iraq is pacified. We might even bomb their nuclear facilities so they can't make any more nukes. The current line about containing N Korea with diplomacy is a bluff to buy time. N Koreans don't seem to be fooled but China, Russia, and S Korea might choose to believe it. 7) The big unresolved question is how will this affect the US Dollar, gold, and US GDP growth and unemployment rate in the next few years. I think that eventually we will see some inflation and long term rates go back up. This thread has been a great source for ideas and views on this. 8) Final point: It makes a hell of a lot more sense to attack a country with rich resources to capture than to attack a place like Vietnam, Serbia, or even Afghanistan. Resources can be very, very strategic. They can pay for a lot of expenses. In a world where the only economic growth is coming from China cranking up the war engine might do us some good if we can avoid making a permanent shift away from private investment. Look what the conquest of South and Central America did for Spain (Hint- lots of gold). Of course, they squandered it all on European religious wars. I think Spain had a couple defaults on debt too come to think of it. Spending is a hard habit to break. Gotta believe all the public and private debt piling up in the US is going to hurt us eventually... Conan