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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (16350)	2/4/2003 2:11:12 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

one that's printing a fresh low: FLM. down 21% today on news that Kmart contract ends. cbs.marketwatch.com i wonder if Longleaf sees this as another chance to take advantage of the "volatility" by adding to their position.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (16350)	2/4/2003 4:58:28 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

Paul: I'd agree with your observation that the Porter perspective is far more useful helping the investor see problems, issues and limitations than it is for seeing the positives. I tend to agree with Charles Ellis that investing is a 'loser's game' by which he means that winning the 'game' is all about avoiding big losers [Clearly my experience hasn't lived up to that ideal, having had my share of clunckers...but I fault errors rather than aspirations for that]. I tend to look at companies that are having problems where the price has taken a big hit. A key issue is whether the problem is temporary and fixable or the price drop is only partial recognition of an UGLY NEW REALITY...a secular change in the business' prospects going forward. Often such changes revolve around competitive issues and that's where the Porter perspective is helpful. I include 2 additional 'forces' - legal/regulatory and the health of complementors [enabling factors such as the sales of hotdogs would be to a mustard vendor]. I often do this analysis after an initial 'ready, fire, aim' buy based on a quick initial look. Today I looked at AGII, but decided to pass: messages.yahoo.com I continue to see in house financing as a key competitive advantage for CMH. Tough times may soon put some Wall Street folks in the market for those trailers.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (16350)	4/24/2003 10:57:38 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78516

PLCM Added on SARS news an example: "Yet SARS fear has created a few upsides. In typical Wal-Mart fashion, the world's largest retailer says its move to videoconferencing could further help cut its costs. "This is a learning experience and we may find we don't have to do as much travel," a spokesman says." PLCM is the largest publicly traded Videoconferencing play and they've recently been taking back share from non-public Tandberg in what has been [up to SARS] a tough market. I don't pick up a bus related SARS article without seeing videoconferencing mentioned as way to deal with it. PLCM has $5 a share in cash [look at long as well as short investments to find it]. Added to RPM on potential for asbestos releif - a recent drag on RPM. See NY Times, 'Asbestos Accord Said to Be Near' article [should be avail for 7 days, free reg required]..even the Trial lawyers assoc is getting behind it, though other lawyer groups oppose. I like the chances of something happening on this.