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Strategies & Market Trends : TATRADER GIZZARD STUDY--Stocks 12.00 or Less..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (34987)	2/4/2003 3:07:34 PM
From: GTC Trader	Respond to of 59879

<< A TA betting man would say that we run to the 375-385 area on drumbeats of war and then pullback 10% after U.S. wins quick awesome victory.. >> Mark, Thanks for the reply. Question: Since POG closed at 378.60 today, we are already near the center point of your target. If the pullback in POG does not occur until AFTER a decisive victory against Iraq, then it would seem to me that POG will go a lot higher before the pullback. Rough estimate: Let's say it takes 4 to 6 weeks for a victory in Iraq, and POG moves up 5 to 10 dollars per week over that time. This would indicate a $20 to $60 jump in POG, or a target of $400 to $440 if the above scenario plays out. It seems to me that if POG tops out around 380 and then pulls back 10% that the pull back would have to occur before we even attack Iraq. Just my 2 cents. Thanks for your input - Ken

To: TATRADER who wrote (34987)	2/9/2003 12:58:13 AM
From: GTC Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 59879

<< A TA betting man would say that we run to the 375-385 area on drumbeats of war and then pullback 10% after U.S. wins quick awesome victory.. >> Mark, The TA dude was right about POG hitting 375-385 and pulling back. POG peaked at about 388 in London/Hong Kong and about 383 in the U.S. Does this mean that the 10% pullback has begun and we can expect POG to pull back to about 340, or do we need to have the victory in sight before such a pullback? If the 10% pullback has begun, then the POG/XAU drop still has quite a ways to go. On the other hand, if POG is supposed to rally until the war begins (or possibly until victory looks sure), then POG may have a few more weeks to rally before the 10% pullback begins. I notice you are long CDE and BWLRF. Are these special case positions despite your bearish short term view of POG and PM stocks, or do you think we may get another good bounce before the 10% pullback? Most PM stocks are looking fairly oversold based on your short-term indicators, but if POG closes lower on Monday, then a drop to at least 360 seems assured. The recent weakness in PM stocks would indicate that they would drop hard in such a scenario. stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUd5!Li8,3]&pref=G What is your short-term (1-2 week) expectation for POG and XAU? Sorry for all the questions, but please elaborate on your current perspective. I am trying to reconcile your above comment with the fact that the pullback seems to be starting too early based on the situation with Iraq. I have several positions (some in the green, some in the red) and need to decide whether to hold for a run to ~400 or get out now before a $30 drop in POG. After the week-long fight for POG to close above 372, I thought the breakout this week would have been good for more than a two-day wonder. As long as we hold at 370, I remain bullish but scared. Still learning ... TIA - Ken