Powell: Case 'Compelling' Without 'Smoking Gun'
URL: washingtonpost.com
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 4, 2003; Page A18
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said yesterday that he will present "no smoking gun" when he tries to convince the U.N. Security Council Wednesday that Iraq is concealing weapons of mass destruction, but will "offer a straightforward, sober and compelling demonstration" that should convince skeptics that Iraq is deliberately thwarting U.N. weapons inspectors.
Powell's statement, in an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal, appeared to be an attempt to dampen expectations for his high-stakes, one-hour appearance before many of his counterparts on the 15-nation council. The international response to his briefing will largely determine whether the administration decides to seek a second Security Council resolution authorizing an invasion of Iraq, or whether it decides to bypass the United Nations.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is President Bush's closest ally but wants a second resolution to win over public opinion in the United Kingdom, yesterday told Parliament, "The evidence of cooperation withheld is unmistakable. . . . We are entering the final phase of a 12-year history of the disarmament of Iraq."
The British believe enough votes exist for a second resolution, and some U.S. officials increasingly think they may be right. Blair will meet today with French President Jacques Chirac, a critic of imminent military action, in an effort to swing France's vote. Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday again indicated he might support a second resolution.
Administration officials have worked past midnight many evenings in the past week to sift through the photographs, transcripts and other classified material that Powell will use to bolster his case. Fierce debates continued yesterday over how strongly to try to link Iraqi President Saddam Hussein with al Qaeda, sources said. Bush's chief foreign policy officials met last night at the White House in an effort to settle some of the differences.
White House and Pentagon officials are pushing to make the connection stronger than CIA and some FBI officials believe is merited by the evidence at hand. Officials said the dispute may not be settled until today.
A number of administration officials, and U.S. allies, believe this is the weakest part of the case against Iraq and that emphasizing it serves to undermine their overall credibility. At the same time, several diplomats said that firm proof of active ties between al Qaeda and Iraq would help swing public opinion in their countries away from extending inspections and toward an imminent military strike.
Balancing those considerations has proved difficult and time-consuming, officials said. Powell is personally overseeing the effort, directing officials to seek declassification of the material that he has found most compelling.
After complaints from lawmakers that Powell was giving sensitive information to foreign officials and the public before it was made available to Congress, Bush agreed to a breakfast meeting on Wednesday with a bipartisan delegation of senior lawmakers. The lawmakers are expected to receive an advance peek at Powell's briefing, officials said.
Much of the information that Powell will use has been closely held, but officials said it would largely track and confirm the case made by Bush in his State of the Union address last week. In particular, it would focus on U.S. allegations that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons and that it is actively deceiving inspectors by moving materials and weapons around the country. Richard Haass, the State Department's director of policy planning, told Egypt's semiofficial al-Ahram newspaper that the evidence would not be as detailed as in a court of law, but more like the dots painted by an artist that create a complete image when the viewer steps back.
"We will present more points about the activities undertaken by Iraqis and from which any sensible person can deduce that these people are hiding something and that they are going to great lengths in foiling the work of the inspectors," he said in an interview published yesterday.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said yesterday an interagency group from the CIA, the National Security Council and the State and Defense departments has been carefully reviewing the raw material to determine if it can be made public. He said the need to disclose the information is "balanced against the need to protect the sources of this information so that we do not, one, lead to anybody getting killed in Iraq as a result of this; or the source of this information drying up in the future."
The British, who have never pressed hard on al Qaeda links, believe that the United States must continue to emphasize that Iraq has violated the terms of Resolution 1441, passed in November, which deals solely with Iraq's violation of previous U.N. demands, its possession of prohibited weapons and its cooperation with new inspections. Although the resolution recognizes that the "proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long range missiles" poses a threat to international peace, it does not refer to al Qaeda or any Iraqi ties with terrorist organizations.
During his White House meeting last Friday with Bush, U.S. and diplomatic sources said, Blair reiterated his belief that they should stick to "first principles," reminding reluctant council members that the resolution they voted for insists on Baghdad's immediate and full disclosure of all prohibited weaponry. "So long as [Powell's] is a good presentation, with some good compelling stuff," said a source who supports this view, "it can accomplish this. I don't think we should set ourselves up for a fall."
In the Wall Street Journal article, headlined "We Will Not Shrink From War," Powell noted that "much has been made of the friction between the United States and some of its traditional partners" on Iraq. "We will work to bridge our differences," he said, promising "a new round of full and open consultation with our allies about next steps."
Staff writers Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus contributed to this report.
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