Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tommycanuck who wrote (17845)	2/5/2003 3:25:03 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206191

TC, I agree with the supply/demand problems we are about to have with NG, but there is little doubt that when Iraq falls (or Saddam goes in exile) in the next several weeks, the price of oil will make a dramatic decline. In addition, OS earnings have been poor and are expected to be poor in Q1. To add to that, the market today is not what the market was in prior cycles. The top this round my be OSX 90, or 100?? I think most of the normal OSX cycle players will continue to wait till after this happens to hop on board the OSX train to riches. Until then I expect the OSX to stay in it's current tight trading range. Your good buddy Saddam may be the one who steals the wheelbarrow this time? Jim

To: tommycanuck who wrote (17845)	2/5/2003 6:28:52 AM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206191

I hope Frank and I can count on you to be a regular voice of reason here. Between the two of us greedy buggers, the euphoria induced by hefty gains has blinded us more than once. I have annually taken money off the table and maintained good returns. But I have given back as much as I have taken off, meaning I could have had 50% annual returns last year for example if I sold everything in May and hid like a smart bear. I think the present storage levels to the 5 yr average along with the forward strip are good leading indicators to start moving out.

To: tommycanuck who wrote (17845)	2/5/2003 11:49:59 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 206191

Tommy, I share your concerns. However, I've gone from neutral the osx to mildly bullish and I'm further increasing my long position in some lagging e&p. Here's why. NG inventories will end low, and not build fast, raising the possibility of a true crisis in 2004. A crisis will be avoided, but the anxiety generated by this possibility will build into the fall. In such an environment, NG and e&p equities will draw a great deal of attention. A crowd will gather, and momentum will form. That is an excellent scenario for distribution, which implies that accumulation should happen or should have been happening now. A quick overview of e&p valuations tells me that the biggest gains are going to be found in co's who are valued as if current ng prices are transient. IOW, many companies, especially some less finacially secure ones, are valued as if current cash flow will not continue. In this scenario, why would you own them now? Why would anyone own them if they will shortly go back to being the same debt burdened, mediocre roi investments that they are at $3 ng? As the realization that NG prices will stay at high prices for this year and move possibly higher next, then these companies will be revalued. LNG is too far off to affect this year. Stripping and fuel switching are already happening and it's not enough. Production gains are coming, but not in my horizon (although I own some HOFF and expect them to do well). After over a year of anticipation, I think a bullish stance on e&p equities is warranted. But it will be just as important to recognize when distribution will happen this time as it will be the last.