Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16068)	2/5/2003 9:27:58 AM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

And you can also add in to your statistics we weren't supposed to have three down years in a row in the markets, surely we can't have a fourth???... And of course what were the odds that after 11 rate cuts by the fed the markets would continue to hit lower lows?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16068)	2/5/2003 10:48:37 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Cumulative Advance Decline Index needs 11,406 NET NEW DECLINES to have confirmation of any NEW BOTTOM. This is a statistical impossibility. In other words, if the October bottom is taken out, it will not be confirmed by new lows in the advance decline index. This is called a Positive Non-Confirmation. Watch it all unfold now as the market commences its launch up as we close in on the midnight hour for the liberation of the Iraqi people from their ruthless oppressor and killer Sadaaam. Sadaaam has directly or indirectly killed more than 1.5 MILLION people since his reign of terror began. The time has come to dispose of this hitler and waste who has no regard for human life.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16068)	2/5/2003 12:46:58 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 19219

the statistical probability that the low is NOT yet in- is now less than 10% Damn lies and statistics. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but if a bottom has already occurred it will be a statistically unique bottom from a P/E (valuation) perspective. For a variety of reasons, I believe that this secular bear is most akin to the '66-'72 secular bear. On an inflation adjusted basis, the P/E compression plunge that began in '66 reached a bottom in '74. A similar eight year period should get us to a P/E in the 7-10 range by '08. Doesn't mean we might not have some significant rallies along the way, just that the longer term trend is still down and to use your terminology "the low is NOT yet in". JMO lurqer

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16068)	2/5/2003 12:59:53 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

>>In fact, the statistical probability that the low is NOT yet in- is now less than 10%. << you really don't make investment decisions on things so shallow, do you?? If you really are putting a lot of stock in that nonsense -- go read CI's monthly from January. 99% of the economists in the US are statisticians -- bereft of the ability to apply economic theory to our current circumstances. Market analysts are worse -- they extapolate 2 or three and sometimes just one data pt. statistics regarding the length of bear markets or prior cycles are total BS. LTCM bet on the odds .. good odds.