Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (136)	2/5/2003 6:59:44 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 666

I'm not sure about the euro. I kept on trading the frantic EUR future swings and I got lucky, all while carrying around my short position which turned sour for a brief time, well... The Euro again failed to break out decisively. If we had seen 1.10, well I think I would have thrown in the towel. You're right this one is not for the faint of heart, and well, a penny is still one big figure - for the fx traders in the banks. Today's range and nasty reversal still amazes me... if you look at www.saxobank.com they really slaughtered their clientele.... their analysis again called for a long trade from some 1.0855 or so, with a stop at 1.078 or 795 and of course the stops were blown. As a European, the last thing I do is covering the euro at inferior (USD) prices. When the truth comes out (ie Euro budgets really in the gutter) then there is no hope either for the Bund nor for the eur. The coming extension of the euro zone means dilution, dilution...(though it is not happening in short time),

To: Londo who wrote (136)	2/15/2003 4:08:29 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

The recent inflictions in the macro building blocks (pair, interests EU/overseas, stock indices, commodity (gold as a residual)) were another nice test case of what could happen. What happened during and after the powell speech repeated itself quite nicely during the blix presentation, like a clockwork (with slightly changed recovery parameters). Stocks rose, EUR and EUR bonds gushed, and the T also reversed. What was interesting was that bonds did not recover much (albeit at a high level), while the EUR quickly and powerfully reversed itself and pared the losses to close little changed while stocks closed strong in the view of a perhaps weeklong upside now. So macro model betas needed another adjustment towards the EUR (has upside), and against bonds (more downside). Gold trades on its own but the day of reckoning nears.