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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16078)	2/5/2003 8:23:29 PM
From: macavity	Respond to of 19219

Fundies. Fundamentals do matter, but over such a timescale that us in the NOW-GENERATION really have no inkling/desire for. The essence of TA is to 'see what the market thinks'. Good fundamental analysis is in my view always, always early. A lot of the secular bears were bearish in LTCM. Why? Well in 97 US post-tax profits peaked and were declining through 98. Forget earnings statements. If you make more money - you pay more taxes. LTCM happened - and it was the end of the world, blah, blah, blah. You had too be bearish. Right! The catch is, if you look at the MONTHLY chart of the $SPX the very long-term trend never turned. Right price collapsed and everything to $SPX=950, BUT IT NEVER TURNED. The 1 year MA never pointed down. There was no confirmation! The market then went on to Nazz5000. The fundies were actually correct. We are below $SPX=950 and the 1 yr MA is pointing down. The thing about having a good idea is that unless we are moving Buffet types of cash, we can afford to wait for The Market to agree with us. Until it does, we have to sweat it staying solvent, which has its own psychological stress to it for me. Just my thoughts. Good luck. Look at charts especially the timeframes that show what type of move - pricewise and timewise - you want to capture. Then look at timeframes above and below. You will then get a better picture of when The Market is 'singing your song'. rambling! -macavity