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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (3404)	2/5/2003 1:32:23 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15994

Powell speech bolsters market Traders bet that the strength of Powell's speech will help draw international backing. February 5, 2003: 1:13 PM EST By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - No, Secretary of State Colin Powell did not offer up a smoking gun. But the evidence he presented against Iraq Wednesday was more convincing than what Wall Street expected. Stocks rose as Powell made his speech before the U.N. Security Council as traders bet that the chances of broad-based international action against Iraq have been raised. When Powell finished speaking, the Dow Jones industrial average was 60 points higher than where it had been when he started. The yield on the benchmarket 10-year Treasury had been pushed from 3.94 to 3.98 percent. Following the speech, the market went higher still. "I thought it was extremely compelling," said Prudential Securities political analyst Chuck Gabriel. "You couldn't have scripted it better -- reluctant general making the case for war." Building the case In his presentation, Powell played tapes of what he said were Iraqi military officers discussing eluding surveillance and U.N. weapons inspectors, showed satellite images of suspected Iraqi chemical weapons sites and detailed links between the Iraqi government and al Quaeda. It is unclear how other nations will react to Powell's speech, but investors hope that its strength will mean that more nations will fall in line with the U.S., or at least not oppose it outright. "The presumption," said Credit Suisse First Boston bond market strategist Mike Cloherty, "is that if you get a more unified opposition to Iraq, you reduce some of the uncertainties." In fact, speculation has risen that, despite their bluster, other countries are moving to act with the U.S. In France, for instance, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaul departed unexpectedly for three weeks of maneuvers, including joint exercises with the USS Harry Truman. On Wednesday, the International Herald Tribune reported that according to a normally well-sourced French newsletter, Paris officials are quietly preparing for war. In some respects, what countries like France do or do not do, has become a sideshow. Barring Saddam's exile or ouster, the course set by Powell Wednesday seems clear. "I think there's a one word summary out of this thing: War," said Trilogy Advisors chief investment strategist Bill Sterling. Markets hate uncertainty, the saying goes, but the certainty of war gives rise to other uncertainties. Winston Churchill was not one to back down from a fight, but gave a warning that applies, in the current period, to statesmen and investors alike: "Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events." money.cnn.com

To: zonder who wrote (3404)	2/5/2003 1:34:38 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 15994

Oil rises post-Powell speech Crude remains strong after U.S. Secretary of State's presentation to the U.N. on Iraq situation. February 5, 2003: 12:39 PM EST LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices stayed strong Wednesday afternoon following U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech to the U.N. Security Council in which he presented evidence that he said proved the Bush administration's belief that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction. In London, Brent crude for April delivery gained 51 cents a barrel to $31.26 while light crude for March delivery rose 44 cents to $34.02 a barrel on the New York Commodities Exchange. "War is something that's very much inevitable," said Paul Bednarczyk, analyst at economic consultancy 4cast. "The market keeps trying to price that in, and I think prices must be fairly near the top." Prices had already climbed sharply earlier Wednesday as dealers began to anticipate that Powell's U.N. address would increase momentum for a U.S.-led war on Iraq, which traders fear could disrupt supplies not only from Iraq but from elsewhere in the oil-rich Middle East. Click here to check CNN/Money's commodities page In a briefing that began roughly at 10:30 a.m. ET and lasted around 90 minutes, Powell said that Iraq has made no effort to disarm and has been allowing members of the al Qaeda terrorist network to operate freely in the country for the last eight months. Many Security Council members want to give weapons inspectors more time to carry out their work in Iraq, but the United States has said Baghdad has weeks, not months, to give up suspected arms or face a U.S.-led military campaign. Chief U.N. inspector Hans Blix has also said that time was running out. On Tuesday, he warned Iraq that it was "five minutes to midnight" and that Baghdad urgently needed to show it was cooperating with inspectors. Blix, along with his colleague Mohamed ElBaradei, in charge of nuclear arms teams, will go to Baghdad Saturday and Sunday at Iraq's invitation. He will report back to the U.N. Security Council Feb. 14, possibly for the last time before a U.S. invasion. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, in a rare television interview broadcast Tuesday, denied Baghdad had weapons of mass destruction or links to the al Qaeda network blamed for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. "There is only one truth, and therefore I tell you as I have said on many occasions before, that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction," he said. Analysts and dealers said that the market was also driven higher by data Wednesday showing a steep drop in stocks of U.S. oil products as seasonal maintenance reduced output from U.S. refineries. Overall crude stocks fell slightly, according to industry figures, but rose slightly, according to government statistics as a two-month-old strike in Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, relinquished its stranglehold. Venezuela's striking oil workers said Tuesday crude output was 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), although President Hugo Chavez, whom the strikers are trying to force to resign, said output was approaching 2 million bpd. In January, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase output to help compensate for the effects of the Venezuelan strike. But last weekend, OPEC ministers warned that as Venezuelan crude was coming back onstream, there could be a supply glut by the second quarter when demand traditionally drops off with the end of cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Analysts also predict that the war premium built into prices will quickly melt away provided that any war against Iraq is short-lived. A Reuters survey found Wednesday that OPEC's January production rose 380,000 bpd from December to 25.65 million bpd, but remained 1.67 million bpd below November levels, before the Venezuelan strike. money.cnn.com