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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (43007)	2/5/2003 3:45:10 PM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 52237

If NAZ don't get thru 1305 right here...will likely close under 1300 - either way not lookin good on the long side

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (43007)	2/5/2003 4:42:58 PM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 52237

Me posting this is probably bullish for the NAZ -gg Worth a read: kitco.com One section: "GOLD and GOLD shares are early in a long term bull market and are busy corroborating technical and fundamental and cyclical upward trend potential. The next phase of the upside breakout confirmed as the $Gold price today penetrated $372, trading at $382 as I write. Some resistance at $396, but really very little until $417, perhaps before end March. $Gold is in the rare super trend I have been talking about, which accelerates despite the hope and expectation of would- be buyers that they can buy lower when a dip comes. But the dip does not come, because too many people are hoping for a dip. That is one of the reasons why gold shares are not yet performing. Both sceptics and gold bulls hope to have an opportunity to buy lower down. In South Africa, the Rand strengthens as the Gold price runs -- but when the Rand meets resistance -- or the $Gold price doesn't pause at $400 -- the fireworks will start. Our behavioural counts show scope for $Gold at $491 and above in the next 18 months and many of the shares 30% -40% + higher in under year. Short positions on golds are already being forced to cover and close [buy back shares shorted or buy back physical gold shorted through futures or leases or swaps]. But again, I don't think the real panic will start until those who are happily waiting for the $Gold price to dip -- begin to realise that it won' t. The belief is still prevalent that the stronger $Gold prices are mainly due to currency factors and war fears. The belief is that after the US goes into Iraq -- the Gold price will collapse and the US$ will recover. Sorry, the war is not the most important issue. I've talked about this at length before -- but the bottom line is that central bankers and bullion dealers and some large gold mines have for years been assuming that the price of gold will stay stagnant or go lower and that the US$ and other paper investments such as Wall Street and US Treasury Bonds will outperform. Those bankers, dealers and mines have shorted gold, leased it out, swapped it and have sold it through derivatives for more gearing -- and now they have a problem -- because the mines cannot increase output quickly -- and central bank sellers are now central bank buyers. All assumptions about a strong US$ and Wall Street are having to be reassessed -- and traders are beginning to realise the squeeze that will happen to the Gold price, not only to $417 resistance, but to well above $500 in the next year or so -- if the US$, US bonds and Wall Street are dumped any faster than is already happening. Demand exceeds supply and demand will increase as a combination of US$ weakness and asset shifts accelerate. It is as simple and fundamental as that"