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To: NOW who wrote (219073)	2/5/2003 5:51:36 PM
From: Israel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Likely be worse than if we went to war IMO..

To: NOW who wrote (219073)	2/5/2003 5:58:22 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<What would no war with Iraq likely do to our markets?>> Given all the posturing from government about how bad he is, at this point if we DON'T go, it'll be taken as a defeat in the war against terrorism. There could be a brief spike up, but then folks would have to confront the ugly reality that the economy presents us with, and the slide would continue. Shrub would lose too much face, his approval ratings would dive and it would almost make it a lock that he loses in 2004. I give this scenario a 5-10% possibility (of no war by the end of the year).

To: NOW who wrote (219073)	2/5/2003 6:02:29 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

3-5 day megaramp like we've never seen before. then a 3 month slide into the depths of hell as people realize the economy really does suck. then a relief rally as a new war opportunity is invented. imo.