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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (27585)	2/5/2003 8:33:21 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 36161

Bingo. The jury's out until Feb 17th or so when all the majors have sorted out last Q earnings and given 1 Q outlook. personally, I can't see how anything but upgrades will come out of the earnings reports.

To: yard_man who wrote (27585)	2/5/2003 9:16:38 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

tippet - asked & answered: ["please clarify your position -- are you saying no more higher prices in the shares -- as in a significant multi-year top has occurreed??"] I am saying - that ala the prior OSX/Oilpatch Cycle Double-Top & Pop that gave birth to this thread...that the "Big & Easy" - "High Reward & Low Risk" Profit ... is always made early cycle...and remember it's only REALLY a profit when you actually sell & cash those gains in. I am saying - that the "Deer in Sinclair-Headlight Bulls" (*TM) are ignoring risk....much to their peril I may ad. I am saying - that the same Doe-eyed wonders missed the High Reward-Low Risk pullback re-entry/add trades, that we had in July, Aug & Oct last year...and instead were focused on adding Goldstocks on Bullions breakout thru $325 - intstead of buying the goldstocks on HUI pullbacks/POG consolidation into the face of rising underlying POG/HUI fundamentals. I am saying - that more Profit was "banked" and less Risk is now held, by buying those Early Cycle HUI/POG pullbacks - which gave Early Cycle Players a 2nd bite at the same 55 HUI point ground twice (HUI 95-150) ...that now allows them to once again step aside here with hopefully 40+ points of that 55 point (HUI 95 to 150) move as we anticipate another No-Brainer Exit/Profit Taking point off of what should have been a very obvious War Hedge - Buy the Rumor/Sell the News play in Gold...that the Doe-eyes are still holding....with visions of 1980-GoldMania Sugar Plums Dancing in their heads. I am saying - that we saw HUI 150 last May, nearly a year ago...and that's still where we are now today....and I am wondering why all the cause celeb` from the buy & hold & late-arrival crowd here for sitting in dead money for nearly a year in what looks like a garden-variety potential double-top forming ? ["Call me a clown, but I don't see the indices as having broken support -- they may do it, but they haven't, yet."] If you plan to wait untill they've "broken support" before you sell...then you are a Clown imho; as you're setting yourself up to be future foot-fodder for the Elephants once they start heading for the Exit Door as they did last year - with 60+ HUI points lost in 7 weeks, including 35ish in just 5 days. Sadly, double-top rollovers are pretty commonplace... that's how the last 2 OSX cycle's played out...and far too many threadsters saw those LATE CYCLE double-top pullbacks as re-entry/add opps...only to get slaughtered. When the stocks are refusing to move thru the 1st Early Cycle top of HUI 150 when POG was $327ish - with POG now moving thru $380...a lightbulb ought to go on... ["Furthermore, the price of a number of the stronger stocks in the sector remain well above the recent highs they broke ..."] Always happens... in the OSX Double Top - you had late-cycle subsectors go to new higher highs in the 2nd & final top and we heard the same arguement then... in the Goldstocks; the juniors & exploration plays reach their highs in the later cycle double top...this should be a "known" and anticipated and acted upon when seen...and NOT used as a sophomoric arguement for 1980-Speculative/Mania SugarPlum Upside still remaining. ["All I see here is somebody taking kudos for something that hasn't happened yet -- what are you saying is the next stop for the XAU or HUI??"] I'll accept Kudo's for what I've done & posted here...and am mainly responding with a few well placed (and DESERVED) digs...because so many are making the same mistakes all over again here... I sold/dumped into the end of May top last year... re-loaded on the July, Aug & Oct significant pullbacks...and unloaded/dumped here once again...giving me the equivalent buy & hold return of HUI 180+ here...with it all safely tucked in the Cash Register...and the rest of you sitting here scratching your heads...waiting to "re-act" AFTER support is broken(WRONG !)...wondering if this recent run in POG & disconnect of the GoldStocks is, or isn't because of a War/Hedge... ie: is it REAL, or is it MEMOREX ? I don't really care; because I'm out (10% pos left, with stops for it all @ HUI 135ish downside/HUI 175-180 upside)...and am avoiding an exponential ramp in RISK & the UNKNOWN's here...I am acting in anticipation of...and not in reaction to, both the market...and YOU; as well as those ramping RISK factors that will soon play out. In my world, RISK is a Bad 4-Letter Word and FEAR is a good 4-letter word; that makes me an investor/trader and YOU a speculative/gambler....although; I'm sure we'll agree to disagree on that (vbg). ["give us a number or a range"] Do you want the "Rabbit out of the Magic Hat" version, or the "I'll pick a number sooooo low that I'll be the baddest of the bad if I'm right" version...or do you want an - "unemotional, egoless version that cares not, if it's a Bull, or Bear scenario...only if it's a HIGH REWARD-LOW/moderate Risk Opportunity in either direction" version ? I'll go with the unemotional, I just want to continually SLAM MY CASH REGISTER TILL IT SINGS in all High Reward-Low/moderate risk scenario's - version: On the downside: ...no specific predictions as predictions ask for a "static" number to forecast a "dynamic" market. But, I will say - given all things remain relatively constant(geopolitically, economically speaking) I have not seen so far and do not expect, nor ANTICIPATE seeing any REAL longterm & BIG money support anywhere much above HUI 95. Taking the caveat that I'll always reserve the right to guage future sector dynamics against that static number prediction...and change it... let's say HUI 95-105 would probably pique my interest again down the road...as long as we still have the same positive underlying fundamentals for POG. On the upside: Very nearterm ? HUI 185ish as a top. If we are in a "pause that refreshes" stage of a potential Multi-Year Up Cycle for Gold ...and I say it's 60:40 to the yes side that we are by the way, I just think that the pause, before we refresh....ie: the "correctionalist" phase is going to be deeper and longer than many here think... and I'd say longerterm upside - HUI 225 (possibly 250 with ongoing terrorist incidents) if DOW 5-6,000/S&P 5-600's are seen, with USD 80, or lower. ...and I'll answer in advance the question I know is coming off of that. Why would I ever sell here; if I think there's a decent chance of seeing HUI 225 ...another potential 50%+ upside form here ? 1. Because 60:40 "gut feel" odds are NOT High Reward-Low Risk scenarios...60:40 is moderate Reward/moderate-high Risk scenario in my book and that is not what I want to make portfolio weighted plays on. I want to make portfolio weighted plays on 85:15 HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK odds "gut feels". "Too Far-Too Fast and Too Easy" moves - also give me those 85:15 "gut feel" Odds to Dump/Take Profits as well...and that's what it felt like off of this recent snap-back rally from the final Oct pullback into a POG breakout, to where the stocks disconnected from the POG move & now the - is it real, or is it a memorex; buy the rumor & sell the news - "War/Hedge" Play or not ? - is soon going to be answered and all the risk imho; is on the downside. I am literally astounded here... honestly so; that anyone who built a solid position into the bottom of this cycle can be sitting here at a "potential" classic double top formation along with a disconnect from the underlying commodity - as was seen in the prior OSX cycle Top ...with a 4 Bagger return in the HUI index here + any trading gains made off of the July,Aug & Oct pullbacks... and you haven't already dumped/sold 75-90% of your Gold Holdings here ? You should be SPANKED ! 4 bagger Index/Sector runs are rare. 4 baggers directly into a huge Bear Market are rarer yet. Why would anyone risk rollover and giving most of it all back - atop such a pile of retained profits into ramping risks and unknowns !?!?! For every 1980 Gold-mania, or late 90's Tech-Bubble play that is won; 10 will be lost hoping that this is the next BIG one... and imho, that is a Fool's Bet...and that is the Bet that many here are going to lose. ["OTW it just sounds like a lot of blather about a very small decline in an ongoing bull market"] "Ongoing Bull Markets" ususally have made SOME headway within a year...and so far; this one hasn't....so for now - end of subject as far as I'm concerned...put the Pom-Poms back into cold storeage and come back and knock on the Door if and when the HUI ramps thru 200...otherwise, we're just going to have to wait & see. PS: vis a vie Earnings ramping the sector to new highs ? This is a Cyclical sector folks...anyone remember the OSX Driller RIG ? Remember that it's earnings literally triple/quadrupled directly into it's stock crashing 75% back at the end of the 1998 run ? The market has already priced those earnings in and with the disconnect of stocks here to the Bullion Run; it's also quite obviously also priced in a "correctionist" move in the Price of Gold....just a matter of how much & how soon.