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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (641)	2/6/2003 9:43:50 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

25 from the sixpack abs down, tight ass 'n all / jw

To: Sully- who wrote (641)	2/6/2003 10:40:58 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 1210

older brother of a friend, sent me his views (multi-$Maire) this guy is cool calm collected and savvy he is a structural engineer working in Denver --------------------------------------------- Jim: It is best to be diversified. I have discovered that my gut is a good contrarian indicator. Currently my gut is telling me to buy preferred utility stocks and nothing else. The utility execs do not want to give up control of their companies. If the cumulative preferred dividends are not paid, usually within two years if they are suspended, the holders usually have the right to seats on the Board. So far I have not ever lost on utility preferred stocks, and have scored on some of those resuming dividend payments. Check the preferred stocks listing in the WSJ and pick out the high-yielding utility (only) stocks, yielding about 8+%. They are good havens in uncertain times like now. Buy right after they declare their dividend for the quarter. Most people bid up the price more than the quarterly payment just before they go ex. My gut is also telling me to hunker down, but I have a little graph I do of the PEG ratio for the DJIA and 10+ year Government bonds and another for the put-call ratio, both vs. time. The put-call ratio is a good contrarian indicator, and it is very high now, indicating a lot of nervousness. When the lines on my pair of graphs cross, it usually is a buy signal for 3 months out. They crossed this month. With my gut and the put-call ratio all being bearish, but contrarian, it is a signal to get out the list which I keep in a drawer and see if any of the prices have gotten reasonable. Some of the pharmaceuticals and drug stores have, as I mentioned to your dad, Professor Gale. So, I would feed a little dollar-cost averaging money into the market in the next several weeks. It is too late for bonds-avoid them completely for now. The presidential cycle applies as well. According to that, President Bush will do many positive things but not till next year. Mr. Greenspan (the reader of entrails IMHO) won't derail his monetary policy. Hopefully his fiscal policy won't implode, like the first Pres. Bush. Don't rely on Value Line recommendations; they are only successful if you buy all their recommendations and change when they do. But their articles are OK. Ignore their recommendations. Beware the indicators that are already discounted, such as the "It will be a quick war and we will win big like 1991" indicator and the "January effect" indicator. Same for people who trot out economic chronologies as a method to time the market. Most of that stuff is already in the market, as the pros know, and the pros make the market in uncertain times. Individuals only have market-moving clout at tops and bottoms. Today's market is all professional traders and it is its usual thousand-point trading range. The U. S. has two weaknesses that the Iraqis don't: aversion to body bags and sensitive economic reactions to body bags. So don't plunge. Gold is getting really high. I bought most of mine when it was about $260-280/oz. On the premise that gold/silver/platinum is worth about 20 X stocks in uncertain times, it is good to have about 5% of your portfolio in precious metals. I consider holding gold to be a necessary expense of having a balanced portfolio. So hold it as an expense, not an investment, but still hold it. Same for silver, although it is more of an industrial metal. So I tried to minimize my "expense", buying over the last several years. It was money that I didn't put into stocks, and probably cost me some gains. Professional short sellers and hedgers run the gold market, so it can't be predicted through natural means, e.g., the popularity of gold jewelry in some foreign country, and the demand and supply are all synthetically induced. But you can still buy it when it is cheap. Is it still "cheap"? Dunno. Good luck, and share your views when you have a chance. Best regards, Jim J (a reply to mine) --------------------------------- Subject: a few articles to ponder Jimmy, please check out a recent work of mine I write under the pseudonym of "Jim Willie CB" "25 Reasons Why Gold Will Rise" 321gold.com this one focused entirely on gold in a comprehensive fashion the press & media like to claim that mainly the Iraqi tensions are behind gold's rise but it is not even among the top 5 reasons they are: - trade gap is now over 5% of US GDP and growing - 3month Treasury Bill yield is now 1.2% which is below the price inflation rate - our shorterm and longterm rates are each below Europe's - federal deficits are escalating, with $6.4 trillion ceiling in need of increase - among the big buyers of gold are the gold mining firms, who sold in excess their forward contracts fascinating stuff I am writing the next article, my 4th right now "The Gold Volcano: All Roads Lead to Gold & Silver" it will demonstrate that at least a dozen big roads of capital are now flowing into gold & silver the result will soon be a volcano for gold, just like in the late 1970's the Federal Govt will assist it, having already announced their intentions to avoid deflation we are about to see the collapse of the USDollar very few expect it but serious students of gold fully expect it we are replaying the devastation of the 1930 Great Depression we are in the midst of the latest Kondratieff Winter, which occurs every 60-70 years 1812 -- Panic of 1812 1870 -- Civil War Reconstruction, railroad finance decimated 1930 -- Great Depression, cars and stock market finance decimated 2000 -- Greater Depression, tech telecom fiberoptic telephone internet wireless airline automobile finance all decimated I expect to gather a few million before this speculative mania is resolved which will kill the dollar in international foreign exchange markets it has begun then I might be off to Ireland to abduct their young women / jim