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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2575)	2/6/2003 4:15:12 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Chip - using Dec 2003 silver calls. Delta about .5 but I like to have some time premium. Had 4.50 strike and intended to roll into 5.00 strike Wed morning. Just posted my expected support on the Mar futes, Message 18545716 in a 4.58-4.62 band. Now, the $64k question. First, I agree with you on silver to catch up, I use the expression "poor man's gold", and I currently think silver is less "manipulated" then gold. (I should say less greedy people trade silver). I have an objective of $5.8 minimum, before the Summer for Silver. If rumors are founded (I think they are, silver can be target of a raid as it has been before, Gates and Buffet holding physicals and shares, few silver plays, give me $2 million and I double the silver price in a week <ng>) my conservative target for silver would be $8, this year, possibly before the Summer. Hence, my Dec 2003 calls (!!!expiry 2 Fri of Nov) and the plan to roll to further contracts in May. Which strike? I am unsuccessfully trying to setup a spreadcheat, even without the options valuation models <ng>, to chose my risk/reward play: 1 contract 4.50 ATM, or two 5.00, or four 6.00 given a possible price of 5.8 (at which I should cover my costs and have a flat result) and a sell target of 7.5 Or should I buy September calls, cheaper, but expiring 2nd Fri of Aug without time premium left, or buy Mar 2004, or May 2004. Same question, no answer. <ng> Re: your SPX chart, needless to say, I agree. Spoo gap was 803. Now, question, we could stop there. Nice base for a bear rally (" Market is up on higher low, October low resited ") OTOH, with delayed war, we will keep muddling through. Last year I posted that my optimistic levels for April this year where "all the sixes", SPX & NDX @600, Dow @6000. My targets for the end of the bear are much lower <ng>. Nothing made me change my mind, and I still have a mini-legdown for Feb and this year's through in April. Remains to be seen, we could as well make this year's through in Feb-Mar given political situation. All in all, rumors, no-rumors, raid, war,.... added together, this correction in the Silver has to be watched and is, IMHO, the last train entering the station. I am less inclined to trade on gold. The announcement of the Nymex margin rises makes me feel uneasy. Shure, some pundits are bullish, many see $1000 as probable. $1000 on gold would be $12.5 in silver if they move in tandem. I am more confident with $12.5 silver. That is my play, and I can be very wrong. My NAV will tell me. <vbg>