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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (7837)	2/7/2003 12:48:37 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 52153

biotech valuation: BBH looked like it was going to break up out of its tight 85-90 range, but that turned out to be just a headfake. This is actually a quite bullish sign. Compare BBH to other speculative groups of stocks. It has held flat, while every other high-risk asset has plunged, because of recent macro and military uncertainties. The good sector news (string of good earnings reports from big biotechs) has been balanced by bad market news, for net no movement. This indicates that, when the market turns up (and it certainly will, only the timing is uncertain), the biotechs will probably have a nice run to the upside. I'd expect BBH to finally crack 90, and probably go to 110 at least. Currently, I'm holding no BBH, and have been patiently waiting for my first buy order, at 85, to fill. I'll continue waiting, for now. But I think I've got perhaps a 4-6 week window of opportunity to get into biotechs, and then the odds steadily tilt towards the group taking off. Military/political events, whose exact nature and timing are unknowables, will strongly influence whether I get my buying opportunity. The most realistic stance, IMO, is just to realise that anything, almost anything at all, could happen. Saddam could accept exile tomorrow, and the Nas could be up 500 points by the end of March. Or, we could get a series of military attacks by Al Queda, the North Koreans, and the anthrax letter-writer (remember him; he's still out there, we never caught him), while our troops are bogged down in the back alleys of Baghdad; and the Nas drops 500 points. Anything could happen.