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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NickSE who wrote (71975)	2/6/2003 10:04:01 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

North Korea: Diplomacy Hits the Wall msnbc.com Feb. 10 issue — For the Bush administration, the worsening nuclear crisis in North Korea is turning into an exercise in frustration. For years conservatives inside the administration have longed to face down the Stalinist state. But now that they have a cast-iron case—satellite pictures show the North is moving its stockpile of nuclear fuel rods—they can only shrug their shoulders. When North Korea took its first aggressive steps—by kicking out U.N. nuclear inspectors in December—the Bush administration decided to play it cool. They ruled out military strikes against the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, and instead of rushing to the United Nations for action, allowed the inspectors themselves to take the lead. Now that go-slow approach is going even slower than the Bush administration wants. After a month of diplomacy, the United States has hit a brick wall. American officials tell NEWSWEEK that the Russian, Chinese and South Korean governments have effectively blocked the nuclear inspectors from taking North Korea to the U.N. Security Council, where the United States had hoped to bring the world together against North Korea. A board meeting of the United Nations’ nuclear inspection group, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was scheduled for this week. But South Korean officials requested yet another delay to allow for more diplomacy. The reality has been American exasperation while North Korea stages ever more aggressive moves. “We can’t get the Russians and the Chinese to help us get the IAEA to live up to its mandate,” said one senior administration official. U.S. officials say the Chinese government is deeply split over the issue, annoyed by the North Koreans but also fearful that the regime will collapse on its doorstep. The Russians, for their part, are suffering “bureaucratic inertia,” according to the administration. In the meantime, the North Koreans are exploiting the crisis in Iraq to place added pressure on Washington. U.S. officials are waiting for the North to stage its next aggressive step in an attempt to shock Washington into agreeing to a big new aid package. “I anticipate a missile test probably five to eight days after we launch military strikes against Iraq,” says one administration official. Where North Korea is moving its fuel rods, nobody really knows. What U.S. officials do know is that the fuel rods—which were kept under seal since 1994—can be rapidly reprocessed into weapons-grade plutonium. North Korea, which already sells missiles to anyone who can pay hard cash, could soon go into full-scale production of nuclear weapons. That prospect—which once filled conservatives with horror—is now met with a giant question mark. “If a country is hellbent on developing nuclear weapons,” says one official, “what can you do?”