Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (16138)	2/6/2003 9:25:30 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Dan, that was a much more eloquent description than mine. -macavity

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (16138)	2/7/2003 8:12:20 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Yes, well said. So by that reasoning we can make the analogy that the market is down 10 points with 2 minutes remaining? They have clocks on the casino walls now? <g> I do see your and the other's points. A person w/ a 70 yr. life expectancy at birth will have a longer one if he makes it to 60. But we're not talking about life expectancies here. If we were, it would be kinda like, a person lives to be 123 years old- what are the odds they'll live to be 130? The trouble is, we're in uncharted territory. You can't make a proper conditional probability such as- If the market sets new lows at 33 months, what are the odds it will have new lows past 37 months. Because there is no data set to draw from. It's never happened. Does that mean it can't happen? NO, but the BEST calculation I can make on it is that the odds are 10-1 it will make new lows. YES, those are the odds at the beginning of the cycle, but that is the only logical way to place probabilities on it that I have come up with. Since you appear to be a statistical professional, maybe you can help me find a better method. Is there a 'fudge factor' you can multiply by to estimate for non-existent data? Any suggestions?