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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob wallace who wrote (2372)	2/7/2003 1:19:44 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

Bob, NLY, I don't doubt their plans and they might actually succeed. If the market rates start one way and they react quickly and rates reverse, ... Lots of scenarios where they can get hurt. Maybe they truly know what they are doing. I remember RMR was the only mortgage REIT that didn't get crushed in 1990-1993 from rapidly falling interest rates, since they were in ARMs. They thought they had the answer. They got crushed in 1994, and the whole time told everyone they were mistaken as their model worked in all environments. They reached highs again by 1997 and had many investors convinced their strategy was safe. Then, they had to switch the name to DX at the stock lost 95-99% in just 2-3 years. I just don't understand the complexity of all the things that can go wrong for the mortgage industry, but it seems to cycle every 5 years or so. Jim, FCH-A is a tremendous value compared to the cost of construction. There is a lot of risk though, as any more terrorist activity would crush the hotel and transportation industry. Richard