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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (1124)2/7/2003 1:40:37 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11447
 
i would be careful extrapolating from the last two years on the bear side the same way in '00 it paid to be careful extrapolating the previous two years on the bull side.

i agree it could go much higher but at some point the turn points are going to revert back towards the mean.



To: Softechie who wrote (1124)2/7/2003 1:44:39 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11447
 
softie,
i took your advice and even went back almost three years (chart stopped at mar 00). 4 successive instancees where vix was near or above 40 and topped out and didn't hit 50.

in 2000 apr 41.5, oct 36.7, dec 37.5
in 2001 mar 41.99

perhaps you should look back a few years

j


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